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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Clinical Medicine >Short-term Forecasts of the COVID-19 Epidemic in Guangdong and Zhejiang, China: February 13–23, 2020
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Short-term Forecasts of the COVID-19 Epidemic in Guangdong and Zhejiang, China: February 13–23, 2020

机译：广东省Covid-19流行病的短期预测，中国浙江及浙江省：2月13日至23日，2020年

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The ongoing COVID-19 epidemic continues to spread within and outside of China, despite several social distancing measures implemented by the Chinese government. Limited epidemiological data are available, and recent changes in case definition and reporting further complicate our understanding of the impact of the epidemic, particularly in the epidemic’s epicenter. Here we use previously validated phenomenological models to generate short-term forecasts of cumulative reported cases in Guangdong and Zhejiang, China. Using daily reported cumulative case data up until 13 February 2020 from the National Health Commission of China, we report 5- and 10-day ahead forecasts of cumulative case reports. Specifically, we generate forecasts using a generalized logistic growth model, the Richards growth model, and a sub-epidemic wave model, which have each been previously used to forecast outbreaks due to different infectious diseases. Forecasts from each of the models suggest the outbreaks may be nearing extinction in both Guangdong and Zhejiang; however, the sub-epidemic model predictions also include the potential for further sustained transmission, particularly in Zhejiang. Our 10-day forecasts across the three models predict an additional 65–81 cases (upper bounds: 169–507) in Guangdong and an additional 44–354 (upper bounds: 141–875) cases in Zhejiang by February 23, 2020. In the best-case scenario, current data suggest that transmission in both provinces is slowing down.
机译：尽管中国政府实施了几项社会疏远措施，正在进行的Covid-19流行病将在中国内部和外部传播。有限的流行病学数据是可用的，案例定义和报告的最近变化进一步使我们对疫情的影响的理解使其对流行病的影响。在这里，我们使用先前验证的现象学模型，以在中国广东和浙江省累积报告案件的短期预测。使用日常报告的累计案例数据到2020年2月13日，来自中国国家卫生委员会，我们向累计案例报告提前5天和10天报告。具体而言，我们使用广义物流生长模型，理查兹生长模型和亚流行波模型产生预测，这些波动波模型，这些波动波模型各自以前用于由于不同的传染病导致的爆发。从每个模型的预测表明爆发可能会临近广东和浙江濒临灭绝;然而，子流行病模型预测还包括进一步持续传输的可能性，特别是在浙江。我们在三个模型中的10天预测预测了广东额外的65-81例（上限：169-507），24-354名（上限：141-875）案件于2020年2月23日。在最佳情况，当前数据表明，两省的传输都在放慢速度。

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