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Building Climate Resilience in the Blue Nile/Abay Highlands: A Role for Earth System Sciences

机译:在青尼罗河/阿贝高地建立气候适应力:地球系统科学的作用

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摘要

The Blue Nile (Abay) Highlands of Ethiopia are characterized by significant interannual climate variability, complex topography and associated local climate contrasts, erosive rains and erodible soils, and intense land pressure due to an increasing population and an economy that is almost entirely dependent on smallholder, low-input agriculture. As a result, these highland zones are highly vulnerable to negative impacts of climate variability. As patterns of variability and precipitation intensity alter under anthropogenic climate change, there is concern that this vulnerability will increase, threatening economic development and food security in the region. In order to overcome these challenges and to enhance sustainable development in the context of climate change, it is necessary to establish climate resilient development strategies that are informed by best-available Earth System Science (ESS) information. This requirement is complicated by the fact that climate projections for the Abay Highlands contain significant and perhaps irreducible uncertainties. A critical challenge for ESS, then, is to generate and to communicate meaningful information for climate resilient development in the context of a highly uncertain climate forecast. Here we report on a framework for applying ESS to climate resilient development in the Abay Highlands, with a focus on the challenge of reducing land degradation.
机译:埃塞俄比亚的青尼罗河(Abay)高地具有明显的年际气候变异性,复杂的地形和相关的当地气候对比,侵蚀性降雨和易蚀土壤,以及由于人口增加和经济几乎完全依赖小农而造成的强烈土地压力,低投入农业。结果,这些高地地区极易受到气候变化的负面影响。在人为气候变化下,由于变异性和降水强度的模式发生变化,人们担心这种脆弱性会增加,威胁到该地区的经济发展和粮食安全。为了克服这些挑战并在气候变化的背景下促进可持续发展,有必要建立以最有效的地球系统科学(ESS)信息为基础的适应气候变化的发展战略。阿伯高地的气候预测包含重大的,甚至是无法减少的不确定性这一事实使这一要求变得复杂。因此,对ESS的一个关键挑战是在高度不确定的气候预测的背景下,产生并传达有意义的信息,以促进抗气候变化的发展。在这里,我们报告了一个将ESS应用于阿湾高地气候抗灾力发展的框架,重点关注减少土地退化的挑战。

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