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The state of conflict early warning in Africa Theories and practice

机译：非洲冲突状况预警的理论与实践

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This article examines the state of the art of early warning in Africa. It looks at the definitions of early warning, considers the historical evolution of conflict early warning systems, and takes a critical look at the debate about the link or the gap between early warning and early action. To this end, it tries to answer some important questions, particularly in relation to the purpose of early warning systems (EWSs) and their limitations so as to ensure that EWSs and early warning analysts are taken for what they are, and not criticised for what they are not or cannot do. In essence, it underscores the fact that the field of conflict early warning is not a fortune-telling business; an industry aimed at predicting socio-political events. The field and its different actors and mechanisms typically serve various purposes and rely on networks and open sources as well as cooperation. At times, some actions are indeed taken and potential conflicts prevented, but these actions do not come to the attention of outside observers precisely because nothing happened. It acknowledges, however, that the field can still learn from past experiences and improve on its delivery, at the level of both analysis and the ensuing action.
机译：本文探讨了非洲预警技术的发展水平。它着眼于预警的定义，考虑了冲突预警系统的历史演变，并批判性地着眼于关于预警与早期行动之间的联系或差距的辩论。为此，它试图回答一些重要的问题，尤其是与预警系统（EWS）的目的及其局限性有关的问题，以确保EWS和预警分析员的本来面目，而不受批评。他们不是或不能做。从本质上讲，它强调了一个事实，即冲突预警领域不是算命业务；旨在预测社会政治事件的行业。该领域及其不同的参与者和机制通常服务于各种目的，并依赖于网络，开源以及合作。有时确实采取了某些行动，并防止了潜在的冲突，但是这些行动并未引起外部观察者的注意，这恰恰是因为什么也没发生。但是，它承认，在分析和后续行动方面，该领域仍然可以从过去的经验中学习并改进交付工作。

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