SVAR (Mis) Identification and the Real Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks

CHRISTIAN K. WOLF

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SVAR (Mis) Identification and the Real Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks

机译：Svar（MIS）识别和货币政策冲击的实际影响

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I argue that the seemingly disparate findings of the recent empirical literature on monetary policy transmission are all consistent with the same standard macro models. Weak sign restrictions, which suggest that contractionary monetary policy, if anything, boosts output, present as policy shocks what actually are expansionary demand and supply shocks. Classical zero restrictions are robust to such misidentification, but miss short-horizon effects. Two recent approaches-restrictions on Taylor rules and external instruments-instead work well. My findings suggest that empirical evidence is consistent with models in which the real effects of monetary policy are larger than commonly estimated.

机译：我认为，最近对货币策略传输的实证文献的看似不同的发现都与相同的标准宏型模型一致。薄弱的标志限制，这表明了互补的货币政策，如果有的话，提升产出，作为政策冲击实际是扩张性需求和供应冲击的实际情况。古典零限制对这种错误识别的稳健性，但错过了短地平效应。最近最近对泰勒规则和外部仪器的限制 - 而是运作良好。我的研究结果表明，经验证据与货币政策的实际影响大于常见估计的模型一致。

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《American economic journal》 |2020年第4期|1-32|共32页
作者
CHRISTIAN K. WOLF;
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University of Chicago Becker Friedman Institute 5757 S. University Ave. Chicago IL 60637;

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SVAR (Mis) Identification and the Real Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks

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