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Chile And Covid-19: Impact On Consumer Sector

机译：智利和Covid-19：对消费领域的影响

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Key View: Due to the Covid-19 pandemic, we have revised down our 2020 consumer spending outlook for Chile. We are now forecasting real household spending to contract by -2.1% in 2020, from our pre-Covid-19 forecast for 2020 of 2.1% growth y-o-y. At the time of writing (May 7), Chile has recorded 23,038 confirmed cases of Covid-19 and 281 deaths. The Chilean government was quick to enact lockdown measures, when a state of catastrophe was declared on March 18. Lockdown measures began to be relaxed from May 1 as part of the government's strategy of a safe return plan to a new normal, with the re-opening of some shopping malls. However, according to opinion polls the majority of the population would still prefer to remain at home. Our 2020 revision, taking into account the projected impact of Covid-19 on Chile, leads us to project that real household spending will contract by 2.1% y-o-y. This is a downward revision on our pre-Covid-19 2020 consumer spending growth outlook of 2.1% y-o-y. In 2019 real household spending in the country grew by an estimate of 0.5%. In line with our consumer outlook revision and the fact that the Chilean economy will be impacted by the knock-on effect from China's lockdown measures in January and February, which led to lower import demand, with Chile’s key export of copper impacted our Country Risk team forecasts real GDP to contract by 3.2% in 2020, down from the 0.6% y-o-y growth previously forecast for the country for 2020 and down on the 1.1% growth recorded for 2019.
机译：关键观点：由于Covid-19大流行，我们下调了智利2020年消费者支出前景。现在，我们预测2020年实际家庭支出将收缩-2.1％，而Covid-19之前的2020年预测为同比增长2.1％。在撰写本文时（5月7日），智利记录了23,038例确诊的Covid-19病例和281例死亡。智利政府在3月18日宣布发生巨灾状态后迅速采取了封锁措施。从5月1日起，封锁措施开始放宽，这是政府将安全归还计划恢复到新常态的战略的一部分，一些购物中心的开业。但是，根据民意测验，大多数人口仍希望留在家里。考虑到Covid-19对智利的预期影响，我们的2020年修订版使我们预计实际家庭支出将同比下降2.1％。这是对我们在2020年Covid 19之前的消费支出同比增长2.1％的下调。在2019年，该国的实际家庭支出估计增长了0.5％。符合我们对消费者前景的修订，以及智利经济将受到中国1月和2月锁定措施的连锁效应的影响，这导致进口需求下降，智利主要的铜出口影响了我们的国家风险团队。预测2020年实际GDP收缩3.2％，低于此前对该国2020年预测的0.6％，低于2019年记录的1.1％。

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    《Americas food and drink insight》 |2020年第6期|6-10|共5页
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