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首页> 外文期刊>The Annals of regional science >How shaky was the regional economy after the 1995 Kobe earthquake? A multiplicative decomposition analysis of disaster impact
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How shaky was the regional economy after the 1995 Kobe earthquake? A multiplicative decomposition analysis of disaster impact

机译：1995年神户大地震后，区域经济状况如何？灾害影响的乘法分解分析

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The long-run effects of the 1995 Kobe earthquake have been studied in various papers (Chang in Disasters 34(2):303-327, 2010; DuPont and Noy in Econ Dev Cult Change, 2015; Okuyama in Singap Econ Rev, 2015), and their findings have revealed the continuous and significantly negative economic trend in Kobe, suggesting that considerable structural changes occurred in the Kobe economy resulting from the damages from and subsequent reconstruction activities after the earthquake. At the same time, Fujiki and Hsiao (Disentangling the effects of multiple treatments-measuring the net economic impact of the 1995 Great Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake. IMES Discussion Paper 2013-E-3. Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, 2013) concluded that the effects from the event were only short-lived and the persistent decline of the Hyogo economy had come from structural change of the economy. In order to investigate the disaster-induced structural changes further, this paper aimed to analyze the extent to and the composition of the structural change, based on the input-output framework. While the previous study (Okuyama in Econ Syst Res 26(1):98-117, 2014) lacked the 1995 data and was inclined toward a longer-run analysis, this paper examined immediate structural changes after the event employing the estimated 1995 input-output tables for the damaged region based on the observed macroeconomic data and with a set of different assumptions (Ashiya and Jinushi in Kokumin Keizai Zasshi 183(1):79-97, 2001). The results show that the significant structural changes were observed in the damaged region and that many manufacturing sectors tightened the regional interindustry linkages, whereas service sectors weakened their regional linkages in the aftermath. In addition, the assumptions of how the reconstruction demands would have been leaked out appear to make some critical differences in the results.
机译：1995年神户大地震的长期影响已在各种论文中进行了研究（《灾害》（Chang in Disasters）34（2）：303-327，2010;杜邦和诺伊（Econ Dev Cult Change），2015;奥山（Singap Econ Rev），2015）） ，他们的发现揭示了神户的经济持续而显着的消极趋势，这表明由于地震后的破坏活动和随后的重建活动，神户经济发生了重大的结构变化。同时，藤木（Fujiki）和萧（Hiao）（辨别多种疗法的效果-评估1995年阪神-淡路大地震的净经济影响。IMES讨论文件2013-E-3。日本银行货币与经济研究所， 2013年）得出的结论是，此次事件的影响只是短暂的，兵库县经济的持续下滑来自经济结构的变化。为了进一步调查灾害导致的结构变化，本文旨在基于投入产出框架来分析结构变化的程度和构成。尽管先前的研究（Okuyama在Econ Syst Res 26（1）：98-117，2014）中缺少1995年的数据，并且倾向于进行长期分析，但本文使用事件发生后的即时估计结构变化来估计1995年的投入，基于观察到的宏观经济数据和一组不同的假设的受损区域产出表（Ashiya和Jinushi in Kokumin Keizai Zasshi 183（1）：79-97，2001）。结果表明，在受灾地区观察到了重大的结构变化，许多制造业在此之后收紧了地区间行业间的联系，而服务业在此后削弱了它们在地区间的联系。另外，关于如何泄漏重建需求的假设似乎在结果上产生了一些关键的差异。

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