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首页> 外文期刊>Applied Energy >Regulating effect of the energy market-Theoretical and empirical analysis based on a novel energy prices-energy supply-economic growth dynamic system
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Regulating effect of the energy market-Theoretical and empirical analysis based on a novel energy prices-energy supply-economic growth dynamic system

机译：能源市场的调控效果-基于新型能源价格的理论与实证分析-能源供应-经济增长动力系统

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It is known that the invisible hand - energy market can reflect the energy price. Follow this perspective, a net structure that every element can conduct mutually has been founded based on the causal relationships among energy price, energy supply and economic growth during a given economic period. Furthermore, a novel dynamic system model of energy price-energy supply-economic growth which can make sure the balanced development of energy market is proposed. Later, four types of regulatory strategies are offered with considerations of both the background of China's certain economic transforming periods and the visible hand of control policies. Then regulating effect of the energy market is obtained. Dynamic behavior of the system and its subsystems are analyzed by means of Lyapunov exponents and bifurcation diagrams. Evolutionary behavior of the energy market affected by changes of energy prices, energy supply and economic growth is described with the method of numerical simulation. A practical system of energy prices is achieved, based on the data of the total energy production, the GDP index, the energy price index in China between 1980 and 2010 and the use of artificial neural network. Model analysis indicates that economic growth will lead to increase of energy supply and there will be two turning points of energy supply in the rapid growth of the economy. Multiple regulatory strategies in the established system are investigated. It is shown that Strategy 1 (exploring new energy sources), Strategy 2 (enhancing the self-regulating market), Strategy 3 (industrial restructuring, appropriately lowering the speed of economic growth, and enhancing the systematic and scientific management) can all stabilize the energy market, but Strategy 4 (purely relying on administrative interventions) cannot stabilize the system, as it will only make the system stay in the state of cycle shocks. An evolutionary analysis is made to show the impacts of different control strengths under the same strategy and that of different control strategies on the energy intensity. It is shown that the regulating effect is periodic and takes time. Reasonable control efforts can effectively reduce the energy intensity, but excessive regulation will be counterproductive. In the short term, Strategy 2 is an effective means to reduce the energy intensity to 0.4886 in about two years. However, in the long term, Strategy 1 and Strategy 3 are effective means to reduce the energy intensity, which are 0.4221 and 0.4343. And they will take about twelve and six years respectively. In general, the expected effect, that is, reducing the energy intensity to 0.3425 in about seven years can be achieved on the premise of maximizing the autonomous function of the market (Strategy 2), exploring new energy sources (Strategy 1) and industrial restructuring (Strategy 3) with appropriate macro-control policies (Strategy 4). (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
机译：众所周知，看不见的手工能源市场可以反映能源价格。按照这种观点，在给定的经济时期内，基于能源价格，能源供应和经济增长之间的因果关系，建立了每个要素可以相互传导的净结构。此外，提出了一种能确保能源市场均衡发展的新型能源价格-能源供应-经济增长动力系统模型。后来，提供了四种类型的监管策略，同时考虑了中国一定的经济转型时期的背景和可见的控制政策。然后获得了能源市场的调节​​效果。利用李雅普诺夫指数和分叉图分析了系统及其子系统的动态行为。用数值模拟的方法描述了受能源价格，能源供应和经济增长变化影响的能源市场的演化行为。根据能源总产量，GDP指数，1980年至2010年中国的能源价格指数以及使用人工神经网络的数据，建立了一个实用的能源价格系统。模型分析表明，经济增长将导致能源供应的增加，在经济的快速增长中能源供应将出现两个转折点。研究了已建立系统中的多种监管策略。结果表明，战略1（探索新能源），战略2（增强自我调节市场），战略3（产业结构调整，适当降低经济增长速度，加强系统和科学管理）都可以稳定经济增长。能源市场，但是策略4（仅依靠行政干预）无法稳定系统，因为它只会使系统保持在周期冲击的状态。进行了进化分析，以显示相同策略和不同控制策略下不同控制强度对能量强度的影响。结果表明，调节作用是周期性的，需要时间。合理的控制措施可以有效降低能量强度，但过度调节将适得其反。在短期内，策略2是在大约两年内将能量强度降低到0.4886的有效手段。但是，从长远来看，策略1和策略3是降低能源强度的有效手段，分别为0.4221和0.4343。他们将分别花费大约十二年和六年。通常，可以在最大化市场自主功能（策略2），探索新能源（策略1）和产业结构调整的前提下，实现预期的效果，即在大约7年内将能源强度降低到0.3425。 （策略3）和适当的宏观调控政策（策略4）。 （C）2015 Elsevier Ltd.保留所有权利。

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