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A grey-based fitting coefficient to build a hybrid forecasting model for small data sets

机译：基于灰色的拟合系数为小数据集构建混合预测模型

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摘要

In the current rapidly changing manufacturing conditions, controlling manufacturing systems effectively and efficiently is a critical issue for enterprises, especially in their early stages. However, it is often difficult to make correct decisions, with the insufficient information available at such times. We thus develop a two-stage modeling procedure to build a predictive model using few samples. We first use three conventional approaches to establish forecasting models, and then implement pre-testing with the proposed grey-based fitness measuring index to determine the weights to create a hybrid model. Two datasets, including color filter manufacturing data and the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation energy database, are evaluated in the experiment, and the results show that the proposed method not only has good forecasting performance, but also reduces the influence forecasting errors. Accordingly, the proposed procedure is thus considered a feasible approach for small-data-set forecasting.
机译：在当前瞬息万变的制造条件下，有效和高效地控制制造系统对于企业来说尤其是在早期阶段，是一个至关重要的问题。但是，由于此时可用的信息不足，通常很难做出正确的决定。因此，我们开发了一个两阶段建模程序，以使用少量样本来构建预测模型。我们首先使用三种常规方法来建立预测模型，然后使用建议的基于灰色的适应度测量指标实施预测试以确定权重以创建混合模型。实验评估了滤色片制造数据和亚太经济合作组织能源数据库这两个数据集，结果表明，该方法不仅具有良好的预测性能，而且减少了影响预测误差。因此，所提出的程序因此被认为是用于小数据集预测的可行方法。

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  • 来源
    《Applied Mathematical Modelling》 |2012年第10期|p.5101-5108|共8页
  • 作者

    Der-Chiang Li; Che-Jung Chang; Chien-Chih Chen; Wen-Chih Chen;

  • 作者单位

    Department of Industrial and Information Management, National Chen Kung University, No. 1, University Road, Tainan City 70101, Taiwan, ROC;

    Department of Industrial and Information Management, National Chen Kung University, No. 1, University Road, Tainan City 70101, Taiwan, ROC;

    Department of Industrial and Information Management, National Chen Kung University, No. 1, University Road, Tainan City 70101, Taiwan, ROC;

    Department of Industrial and Information Management, National Chen Kung University, No. 1, University Road, Tainan City 70101, Taiwan, ROC;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《工程索引》(EI);
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    forecasting; grey theory; small data set; color filter; electricity consumption;

    机译：预测;灰色理论小数据集;彩色滤光片用电量;

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