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Grey number prediction using the grey modification model with progression technique

机译：使用带有渐进技术的灰色修正模型进行灰度预测

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摘要

Although the grey model has been employed in various fields and demonstrated promising results, most applications focus on precise number predictions. However, owing to the increasing complexity of real-world problems, the grey number predictions will be more flexible and practical for grey model to describe the uncertain future tendency. For the purpose of establishing a grey model with grey number, this paper proposes a progression technique, which adopts different length series divided from the simulation data to produce a grey number prediction. Besides, this paper also modifies the algorithm of grey model, including altering the calculation of background value with an integration term and replacing the initial value of grey differential equation to the latest point, to enhance its accuracy. Two illustrative examples of numerical series and stock market are adopted for demonstrations. Results show that the proposed model can both catch the future tendency and reduce the loss of erroneous judgments.
机译：尽管灰色模型已在各个领域中使用并显示出可喜的结果，但大多数应用程序都专注于精确的数字预测。但是，由于现实世界中问题的复杂性不断提高，灰数预测对于描述不确定的未来趋势的灰色模型将更加灵活和实用。为了建立具有灰度数的灰度模型，本文提出了一种渐进技术，其采用从模拟数据中划分出的不同长度序列来产生灰度数预测。此外，本文还对灰色模型算法进行了改进，包括用积分项改变背景值的计算，并将灰色微分方程的初始值替换为最新值，以提高其准确性。数值系列和股票市场的两个说明性示例被采用来进行演示。结果表明，提出的模型既可以适应未来趋势，又可以减少错误判断的损失。

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  • 来源
    《Applied Mathematical Modelling》 |2011年第3期|p.1314-1321|共8页
  • 作者

    Chi-Sheng Shih; Yen-Tseng Hsu; Jerome Yeh; Pin-Chan Lee;

  • 作者单位

    Department of Computer Science and Information Engineering, National Taiwan University of Science and Technology, 43, Section 4, Keelung Road,Taipei 106, Taiwan;

    Department of Computer Science and Information Engineering, National Taiwan University of Science and Technology, 43, Section 4, Keelung Road,Taipei 106, Taiwan;

    Department of Computer Science and Information Engineering, National Taiwan University of Science and Technology, 43, Section 4, Keelung Road,Taipei 106, Taiwan;

    Department of Computer Science and Information Engineering, National Taiwan University of Science and Technology, 43, Section 4, Keelung Road,Taipei 106, Taiwan;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《工程索引》(EI);
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    background value; grey model; grey number; initial value; progression technique;

    机译：背景值;灰色模型;灰色数;初始值;渐进技术;

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