Economy edges toward full employment

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Economy edges toward full employment

机译：经济趋于充分就业

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Driven by renewed confidence, still low interest rates, readily available credit and a need to expand operations, business investment will lead a healthy economy in 2005, the American Bankers Association Economic Advisory Committee (EAC) said in late January. The EAC's forecast is that the national economy will grow at an annual rate of 3.5% in 2005. The underlying core rate-excluding food and energy — is expected to rise modestly to 2% as the labor market approaches full employment. The EAC predicted the unemployment rate will decline, approaching 5% by year end. "The U.S. economy is moving toward its full potential, with business investment increasing and improved wage gams," said Richard DeKascr, EAC chairman and senior vice-president and chief economist, National City Corp., Cleveland. "Consumer spending will play a supporting role buoyed by new jobs and rising incomes."

机译：1月下旬，美国银行家协会经济咨询委员会（EAC）表示，在信心恢复，利率仍然较低，信贷可随时使用以及需要扩大运营的推动下，商业投资将在2005年引领健康的经济。 EAC的预测是，2005年国民经济将以3.5％的年增长率增长。随着劳动力市场趋于充分就业，基本核心增长率（不包括食品和能源）预计将小幅上升至2％。 EAC预测失业率将下降，到年底将接近5％。 EAC主席，国家城市公司（National City Corp.）克利夫兰（Cleveland）的高级副总裁兼首席经济学家Richard DeKascr说：“随着商业投资的增加和薪资水平的提高，美国经济正朝着其全部潜力发展。” “消费者支出将在新工作和收入增加的推动下起到支撑作用。”

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《ABA Banking Journal》 |2005年第3期|p.64|共1页
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机译：在本文中，我们分析了DsGE新凯恩斯主义模型，该模型具有明显的劳动力，其中企业可能属于两个不同的最终产品生产部门，其中工资和就业是在竞争性劳动力市场中确定的，而工资和就业是由工资和就业导致的。工会和公司之间的合同过程。企业和垄断联盟之间的讨价还价意味着模型中的实际工资刚性，反过来，产出稳定和通货膨胀稳定之间的内生权衡。我们表明，生产率冲击对通货膨胀的负面影响以及成本推动冲击的积极影响，主要取决于属于竞争部门的企业比例。这个数字越大，这些效果越小。我们得出一个基于福利的目标函数作为经济代理人的预期效用的二阶泰勒近似，我们分析最优货币政策。我们表明，属于竞争性行业的企业数量越大，名义利率对外生生产率和成本推动冲击的反应就越小。但是，如果我们考虑利率必须对通胀预期作出反应的工具规则，则该规则不受劳动力市场结构的影响。该模型的结果与宏观经济学中众所周知的经验规律一致，即就业波动率大于实际工资波动率。

Economy edges toward full employment

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