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Estimating Key Economic Variables: The Policy Implications

机译：估算关键经济变量：政策含义

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The current monetary policy debate has focused on current estimates and the future path of the natural rate of unemployment and the equilibrium interest rate. Estimates of the natural rate of unemployment should vary over time with changes in demographics and improvements in human capital. However, these changes should be gradual. This paper shows that the estimates of the natural rate of unemployment by Federal Reserve officials and private-sector economists seem to move pro-cyclically, potentially showing too much weight given to short-term fluctuations in economic variables. As with the natural rate, there are good reasons to expect the equilibrium interest rate to change over time. In fact, the level may actually be more responsive to current economic data, reflecting changes in aggregate savings and investment. Yet, we see that equilibrium interest rate estimates by both Federal Reserve officials and private-sector economists have declined quite dramatically over the past five years. A potential concern raised in this paper is that estimates of these critical economic variables for policy determination appear to be overly sensitive to high frequency economic data.
机译：当前的货币政策辩论集中在自然失业率和均衡利率的当前估计和未来路径上。随着人口结构的变化和人力资本的提高，自然失业率的估计值应随时间变化。但是，这些更改应该是渐进的。本文表明，美联储官员和私营部门经济学家对自然失业率的估计似乎呈周期性变化，这可能显示出对经济变量的短期波动过于重视。与自然利率一样，有充分的理由预期均衡利率会随时间变化。实际上，该水平实际上可能对当前的经济数据更加敏感，反映了总储蓄和投资的变化。然而，我们看到美联储官员和私营部门经济学家对均衡利率的估计在过去五年中已经大大下降。本文提出的一个潜在问题是，用于决策的这些关键经济变量的估计值似乎对高频经济数据过于敏感。

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