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Statistical analysis of hail characteristics in the hail-protected western part of Croatia using data from hail suppression stations

机译：利用来自冰雹抑制站的数据对克罗地亚受冰雹保护的西部地区的冰雹特征进行统计分析

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In the continental part of Croatia, operational hail suppression has been conducted for more than 30 years. The current protected area is 25,177 km~2 and has about 492 hail suppression stations which are managed with eight weather radar centres. This paper present a statistical analysis of parameters connected with hail occurrence on hail suppression stations in the western part of protected area in 1981-2000 period. This analysis compares data of two periods with different intensity of hail suppression activity and is made as a part of a project for assessment of hail suppression efficiency in Croatia. Because of disruption in hail suppression system during the independence war in Croatia (1991-1995), lack of rockets and other objective circumstances, it is considered that in the 1991 -2000 period, hail suppression system could not act properly. Because of that, a comparison of hail suppression data for two periods was made. The first period (1981-1990), which is characterised with full application of hail suppression technology is compared with the second period (1991-2000). The protected area is divided into quadrants (9 x 9 km), such that every quadrant has at least one hail suppression station and intercomparison is more precise. Discriminant analysis was performed for the yearly values of each quadrant. These values included number of cases with solid precipitation, hail damage, heavy hail damage, number of active hail suppression stations, number of days with solid precipitation, solid precipitation damage, heavy solid precipitation damage and the number and duration of air traffic control bans. The discriminant analysis shows that there is a significant difference between the two periods. Average values of observed periods on isolated discriminant function 1 are for the first period (1981-1990) - 0.36 and for the second period +0.23 standard deviation of all observations. The analysis for all eight variables shows statistically substantial differences in the number of hail suppression stations (which have a positive correlation) and in the number of cases with air traffic control ban, which have, like all other variables, a negative correlation. Results of statistical analysis for two periods show positive influence of hail suppression system. The discriminant analysis made for three periods shows that these three periods can not be compared because of the short time period, the difference in hail suppression technology, working conditions and possible differences in meteorological conditions. Therefore, neither the effectiveness nor ineffectiveness of hail suppression operations nor their efficiency can be statistically proven. For an exact assessment of hail suppression effectiveness, it is necessary to develop a project, which would take into consideration all the parameters used in such previous projects around the world―a hailpad polygon.
机译：在克罗地亚大陆部分，开展了30年以上的制止冰雹行动。目前的保护区为25,177 km〜2，约有492个冰雹抑制站，由八个气象雷达中心管理。本文对1981-2000年保护区西部防雹站的冰雹发生相关参数进行统计分析。该分析比较了不同时期冰雹抑制活动强度的两个时期的数据，并将其作为评估克罗地亚冰雹抑制效率项目的一部分。由于克罗地亚独立战争期间（1991-1995年）冰雹抑制系统的中断，缺乏火箭弹和其他客观情况，人们认为在1991年-2000年期间，冰雹抑制系统无法正常运行。因此，比较了两个时期的冰雹抑制数据。将第一阶段（1981-1990年）和第二阶段（1991-2000年）进行比较，第一阶段的特点是充分应用防雹技术。保护区被划分为四个象限（9 x 9 km），因此每个象限至少有一个冰雹抑制站，并且比对更加精确。对每个象限的年值进行判别分析。这些值包括发生固体降水，冰雹损害，严重冰雹损害，活动冰雹抑制站的数量，发生固体降水的天数，固体降水损害，严重固体降水损害以及空中交通管制禁令的数量和持续时间。判别分析表明，两个时期之间存在显着差异。孤立判别函数1的观察期平均值为所有观察值的第一个时期（1981-1990）-0.36，第二个时期的平均值+0.23标准偏差。对所有八个变量的分析显示，冰雹抑制站的数量（具有正相关）和空中交通管制禁令的案例在统计上有显着差异，与所有其他变量一样，这些数量也具有负相关。两个时期的统计分析结果显示了冰雹抑制系统的积极影响。对三个时段进行的判别分析表明，由于时段短，冰雹抑制技术的差异，工作条件以及气象条件的可能差异，无法对这三个时段进行比较。因此，冰雹抑制操作的有效性，无效性或效率均无法通过统计方法得到证明。为了精确评估防雹效果，有必要开发一个项目，其中要考虑到世界上以前的此类项目中使用的所有参数-一个冰雹多边形。

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