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Probabilistic social cost-benefit analysis for green roofs: A lifecycle approach

机译：绿色屋顶的概率社会成本效益分析：一种生命周期方法

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摘要

Green roofs have been used as an environmentally friendly product for many centuries and considered as a sustainable construction practice. Economic and environmental benefits of green roofs are already proven by many researchers. However, a lifecycle net benefit-cost analysis, with the social dimension, is still missing. Sustainable development requires quantitative estimates of the costs and benefits of current green technologies to encourage their use. This paper is based on an extensive literature review in multiple fields and reasonable assumptions for unavailable data. The Net Present Value (NPV) per unit of area of a green roof was assessed by considering the social-cost benefits that green roofs generate over their lifecycle. Two main types of green roofs - i.e. extensive and intensive - were analyzed. Additionally, an experimental extensive green roof, which replaced roof layers with construction and demolition waste (C&D), was assessed. A probabilistic analysis was performed to estimate the personal and social NPV and payback period of green roofs. Additionally, a sensitivity analysis was also conducted. The analysis demonstrated that green roofs are short-term investments in terms of net returns. In general, installing green roofs is a low risk investment. Furthermore, the probability of profits out of this technology is much higher than the potential financial losses. It is evident that the inclusion of social costs and benefits of green roofs improves their value.
机译：多个世纪以来，绿色屋顶已被用作环保产品，并被视为可持续的建筑实践。许多研究人员已经证明了绿色屋顶的经济和环境效益。但是，仍然缺少具有社会维度的生命周期净收益成本分析。可持续发展需要对当前绿色技术的成本和收益进行定量估计，以鼓励其使用。本文基于对多个领域的广泛文献综述以及对不可用数据的合理假设。通过考虑绿色屋顶在其整个生命周期中产生的社会成本收益，评估了绿色屋顶的每单位面积的净现值（NPV）。分析了两种主要类型的绿色屋顶-即广泛的和密集的。此外，还评估了一个实验性的大面积绿色屋顶，该屋顶用建筑和拆除废物（C＆D）代替了屋顶层。进行了概率分析以估计个人和社会的NPV以及绿色屋顶的投资回收期。另外，还进行了敏感性分析。分析表明，就净收益而言，屋顶绿化是短期投资。通常，安装绿色屋顶是一项低风险的投资。此外，从该技术中获利的可能性远高于潜在的财务损失。显然，将社会成本和绿色屋顶的收益包括在内可以提高其价值。

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