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首页> 外文期刊>Urban Forestry & Urban Greening >Probabilistic private cost-benefit analysis for green roof installation: A Monte Carlo simulation approach
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Probabilistic private cost-benefit analysis for green roof installation: A Monte Carlo simulation approach

机译：绿色屋顶安装的概率私人成本效益分析：蒙特卡洛模拟方法

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摘要

Green roofs are known as one of the environmentally-friendly applications and also as a sustainable approach in developing countries. Although many researchers have proven the environmental benefits of installing green roofs all around the world, they have not been used widely in many countries due to the lack of knowledge about cost-benefit issues. This paper places an emphasis on all the private factors affecting cost-benefit analysis. Installation, operation and maintenance costs are compared with the benefits such as energy saving, the increase in property value, and the acoustic effect in order to determine two indicators namely "net present value" and "pay-back period," using the Monte Carlo simulation. Two scenarios are considered in the analyses: using the property, and selling the property after construction. Moreover, correlation and regression sensitivity analyses are also conducted. The capital of Malaysia, Kuala Lumpur, is selected for the case study due to the lack of cost-benefit analysis in developing countries. The results show that there is low probability of loss in the installation of both types of green roofs during their lifespans. Moreover, net present value for intensive green roofs is found to be higher than extensive ones, whereas the payback period for installing extensive green roofs is lower than intensive green roofs. It is concluded that the probability of loss for the owner is higher than that of benefit in the scenario of selling the property after construction resulting from the installation of both types of green roofs. (C) 2016 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.
机译：在发展中国家，绿色屋顶被认为是一种环保应用，也是一种可持续的方法。尽管许多研究人员已经证明了在全世界范围内安装绿色屋顶的环境效益，但由于缺乏有关成本效益问题的知识，它们并未在许多国家得到广泛使用。本文重点介绍影响成本效益分析的所有私人因素。将安装，运营和维护成本与诸如节能，增加财产价值和声学效果之类的收益进行比较，以便使用蒙特卡洛确定“净现值”和“投资回收期”两个指标。模拟。分析中考虑了两种情况：使用物业，以及在建造后出售物业。此外，还进行了相关性和回归敏感性分析。由于缺乏发展中国家的成本效益分析，因此选择马来西亚首都吉隆坡作为案例研究对象。结果表明，两种类型的绿色屋顶在其使用寿命期间安装损失的可能性均很小。此外，发现密集型绿色屋顶的净现值要比粗化绿色屋顶的净现值高，而安装粗化绿色屋顶的投资回收期却比密集型绿色屋顶的投资回收期短。得出的结论是，由于安装了两种类型的绿色屋顶，在建设后出售财产的情况下，所有者损失的可能性高于收益的损失的可能性。 （C）2016 Elsevier GmbH。版权所有。

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