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Housing stock shrinkage: vacancy and demolition trends in Germany

机译：房屋库存减少：德国的空置和拆除趋势

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摘要

Although most discussions on building stocks assume a static or growing stock over time, this case study highlights the opposite condition of a shrinking population and its potential effects on the building stock. Scenarios to 2050 are presented for the housing stock in eastern and western Germany based on population projections. Due to long-term population decline, the prospect of increasing housing vacancies raises new questions for urban housing stock management, operation and maintenance strategies. In the first years of the new millennium, the demolition rate in eastern Germany increased to 0.5% of the existing stock per year. This rate may need to increase further over the next 40 years to keep the vacancy rate below an average of 15%, which could mean 20-25% in multiple-dwelling units. With 25 years' delay, western Germany will enter a similar development stream also due to population shrinkage. Spatial disparities of shrinking population patterns will require a critical revision of public policy. Reconciling environmental objectives to preserve old stocks, reduce demolition rates, and reduce material flows will need to be balanced with demographic, social arid economic concerns. This will impact on the current interpretations of sustainable development and suggests that regional circumstances will need to be incorporated into the evolving definition.
机译：尽管大多数有关建筑存量的讨论都假设随着时间的推移存量是静态或增长，但本案例研究强调了人口减少的相反状况及其对建筑存量的潜在影响。根据人口预测，提出了到2050年德国东部和西部住房存量的方案。由于人口的长期减少，住房空缺数量的增加给城市住房存量管理，运营和维护策略提出了新的问题。在新千年的头几年，德国东部的拆迁率提高到每年现有存货的0.5％。在接下来的40年中，可能需要进一步提高该比率，以将空置率保持在平均15％以下，这可能意味着多居单元中的空置率会达到20-25％。延迟25年，德国西部也将由于人口减少而进入类似的发展进程。不断缩小的人口格局的空间差异将要求对公共政策进行重大修改。协调环境目标以保护旧库存，降低拆除率和减少物资流动将需要与人口，社会和经济方面的忧虑保持平衡。这将影响当前对可持续发展的解释，并建议将地区情况纳入不断发展的定义中。

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