• 主题
高级搜索  >
历史搜索 清空历史
首页> 外文期刊>Canadian Water Resources Journal >Flood analysis and flood projections under climate change in New Brunswick
【24h】

Flood analysis and flood projections under climate change in New Brunswick

机译：气候变化下新不伦瑞克省的洪水分析和洪水预测

获取原文
获取原文并翻译 | 示例
           
页面导航
  • 摘要
  • 著录项
  • 相似文献
  • 相关主题

摘要

Floods events are a key component in river engineering including the design and risk assessment of various projects. In this study, a flood frequency analysis was carried out to determine flood characteristics in New Brunswick under present and future climate. For current flood characteristics, an analysis was carried out using 56 hydrometric stations across the province using the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution and the three-parameter lognormal distribution function. A regional flood frequency analysis was also carried out using regression equations. Results showed that current regional flood equations were very consistent among distribution functions. Results were also consistent with previous studies. To study floods under climate change, seven catchments were selected within the province and these catchments were further analyzed using artificial neural network (ANN) models for two climate scenarios. As such, future climate data were extracted from the third-generation Coupled Climate Model (CGCM3.1) under the greenhouse gas emission scenarios B1 and A2. The climate variables (temperature and precipitation) were downscaled using the delta change approach, and future river discharges were predicted. A frequency analysis was then carried out on these seven stations using the GEV distribution function. Results showed that for the period 2010-2100, average temperatures are projected to increase between 2.9 degrees C (B1) and 5.2 degrees C (A2) in New Brunswick. As for precipitation, the mean annual precipitation showed an increase of 9 to 12% compared to current conditions. Results also showed an increase in flood flows. The increase in low-return floods (e.g. 2-year) was generally higher than the increase of higher return floods (e.g. 100-year). Depending on the scenario and the future time period, the increase in low-return floods was about 30%, and about 15% for higher return floods. A Regional Climate Index (RCI) was used to links floods to their frequency under future climate scenarios.
机译：洪水事件是河流工程的关键组成部分，包括各种项目的设计和风险评估。在这项研究中，进行了洪水频率分析，以确定当前和未来气候下新不伦瑞克省的洪水特征。对于当前的洪水特征，使用通用极值（GEV）分布和三参数对数正态分布函数对全省的56个水文站进行了分析。还使用回归方程进行了区域洪水频率分析。结果表明，当前区域洪水方程在分布函数之间非常一致。结果也与以前的研究一致。为了研究气候变化下的洪水，该省选择了七个集水区，并使用人工神经网络（ANN）模型针对两个气候情景进一步分析了这些集水区。因此，在温室气体排放情景B1和A2下，从第三代耦合气候模型（CGCM3.1）中提取了未来的气候数据。使用三角洲变化法缩小了气候变量（温度和降水）的范围，并预测了未来的河流排放量。然后使用GEV分布函数对这七个站进行了频率分析。结果表明，在新不伦瑞克省，2010年至2100年期间，平均气温预计将上升2.9摄氏度（B1）至5.2摄氏度（A2）。在降水方面，年平均降水量比当前状况增加了9至12％。结果还显示洪水流量增加。低水位洪水的增加量（例如2年）通常高于高水位洪水的增加量（例如100年）。根据情况和未来时间段，低水位洪水的增长率约为30％，高水位洪水的增长率约为15％。在未来气候情景下，使用区域气候指数（RCI）将洪水与其洪水频率联系起来。

著录项

  • 来源
    《Canadian Water Resources Journal》 |2016年第2期|319-330|共12页
  • 作者

    El-Jabi Nassir; Caissie Daniel; Turkkan Noyan;

  • 作者单位

    Univ Moncton, Dept Civil Engn, Moncton, NB E1A 3E9, Canada;

    Dept Fisheries & Oceans Canada, Moncton, NB, Canada;

    Univ Moncton, Dept Civil Engn, Moncton, NB E1A 3E9, Canada;

  • 收录信息
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

相似文献

  • 外文文献
  • 中文文献
  • 专利
获取原文

客服邮箱：kefu@zhangqiaokeyan.com

京公网安备：11010802029741号 ICP备案号：京ICP备15016152号-6 六维联合信息科技 (北京) 有限公司©版权所有

  • 客服微信

  • 服务号