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A dissection of the surface temperature biases in the Community Earth System Model

机译：剖析社区地球系统模型中的表面温度偏差

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摘要

Based upon the climate feedback-responses analysis method, a quantitative attribution analysis is conducted for the annual-mean surface temperature biases in the Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1). Surface temperature biases are decomposed into partial temperature biases associated with model biases in albedo, water vapor, cloud, sensible/latent heat flux, surface dynamics, and atmospheric dynamics. A globally-averaged cold bias of -1.22 K in CESM1 is largely attributable to albedo bias that accounts for approximately -0.80 K. Over land, albedo bias contributes -1.20 K to the averaged cold bias of -1.45 K. The cold bias over ocean, on the other hand, results from multiple factors including albedo, cloud, oceanic dynamics, and atmospheric dynamics. Bias in the model representation of oceanic dynamics is the primary cause of cold (warm) biases in the Northern (Southern) Hemisphere oceans while surface latent heat flux over oceans always acts to compensate for the overall temperature biases. Albedo bias resulted from the model's simulation of snow cover and sea ice is the main contributor to temperature biases over high-latitude lands and the Arctic and Antarctic region. Longwave effect of water vapor is responsible for an overall warm (cold) bias in the subtropics (tropics) due to an overestimate (underestimate) of specific humidity in the region. Cloud forcing of temperature biases exhibits large regional variations and the model bias in the simulated ocean mixed layer depth is a key contributor to the partial sea surface temperature biases associated with oceanic dynamics. On a global scale, biases in the model representation of radiative processes account more for surface temperature biases compared to non-radiative, dynamical processes.
机译：基于气候反馈响应分析方法，对社区地球系统模型版本1（CESM1）中的年平均表面温度偏差进行了定量归因分析。将表面温度偏差分解为与模型反照率，反照率，水蒸气，云，感/潜热通量，表面动力学和大气动力学有关的局部温度偏差。 CESM1中全球平均的冷偏差为-1.22 K，这在很大程度上归因于反照率偏差，约为-0.80K。在陆地上，反照率偏差为-1.25 K的平均冷偏差贡献了-1.20K。另一方面，是由多个因素造成的，包括反照率，云，海洋动力学和大气动力学。海洋动力学模型表示中的偏差是北（南）半球海洋冷（暖）偏差的主要原因，而海洋表面的潜热通量总是起到补偿总体温度偏差的作用。该模型对积雪和海冰的模拟结果产生的反照率偏差是造成高纬度地区以及北极和南极地区温度偏差的主要因素。由于该区域特定湿度的高估（低估），水蒸气的长波效应是造成亚热带（热带）总体温暖（冷）的原因。温度偏差的云强迫表现出较大的区域变化，模拟海洋混合层深度中的模型偏差是与海洋动力学有关的部分海表温度偏差的关键因素。在全球范围内，与非辐射动态过程相比，辐射过程模型表示中的偏差更多地归因于表面温度偏差。

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