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Sensitivity of Hudson Bay Sea ice and ocean climate to atmospheric temperature forcing

机译：哈德逊湾海冰和海洋气候对大气强迫的敏感性

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摘要

A regional sea-ice-ocean model was used to investigate the response of sea ice and oceanic heat storage in the Hudson Bay system to a climate-warming scenario. Projections of air temperature (for the years 2041-2070; effective CO_2 concentration of 707-950 ppmv) obtained from the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM 4.2.3), driven by the third-generation coupled global climate model (CGCM 3) for lateral atmospheric and land and ocean surface boundaries, were used to drive a single sensitivity experiment with the delta-change approach. The projected change in air temperature varies from 0.8℃ (summer) to 10℃ (winter), with a mean warming of 3.9℃. The hydrologic forcing in the warmer climate scenario was identical to the one used for the present climate simulation. Under this warmer climate scenario, the sea-ice season is reduced by 7-9 weeks. The highest change in summer sea-surface temperature, up to 5℃, is found in southeastern Hudson Bay, along the Nunavik coast and in James Bay. In central Hudson Bay, sea-surface temperature increases by over 3℃. Analysis of the heat content stored in the water column revealed an accumulation of additional heat, exceeding 3 MJ m~(-3), trapped along the eastern shore of James and Hudson bays during winter. Despite the stratification due to meltwater and river runoff during summer, the shallow coastal regions demonstrate a higher capacity of heat storage. The maximum volume of dense water produced at the end of winter was halved under the climate-warming perturbation. The maximum volume of sea ice is reduced by 31% (592 km3) while the difference in the maximum cover is only 2.6% (32,350 km2). Overall, the depletion of sea-ice thickness in Hudson Bay follows a southeast-northwest gradient. Sea-ice thickness in Hudson Strait and Ungava Bay is 50% thinner than in present climate conditions during wintertime. The model indicates that the greatest changes in both sea-ice climate and heat content would occur in southeastern Hudson Bay, James Bay, and Hudson Strait.
机译：区域海冰海洋模型用于调查哈德逊湾系统中海冰和海洋储热对气候变暖情景的响应。由加拿大区域气候模型（CRCM 4.2.3）获得的，由第三代耦合全球气候模型（CGCM 3）驱动的气温预测（2041-2070年；有效CO_2浓度为707-950 ppmv）横向大气，陆地和海洋表面边界，已被用于通过变化量法进行单次敏感性实验。预计气温的变化范围是从夏季的0.8℃到冬季的10℃，平均变暖为3.9℃。气候变暖情况下的水文强迫与当前气候模拟所使用的强迫相同。在这种气候变暖的情况下，海冰季节减少了7-9周。在哈德逊湾东南部，努纳维克（Nunavik）海岸和詹姆士湾（James Bay）中，夏季海表温度变化最高，最高可达5℃。在哈德逊湾中部，海面温度升高了3℃以上。对存储在水柱中的热量进行分析后，发现冬季积聚在詹姆斯和哈德逊湾东岸的热量超过3 MJ m〜（-3）。尽管夏季由于融水和河流径流而分层，但浅海沿岸地区仍具有较高的储热能力。在气候变暖的扰动下，冬季末产生的浓水最大量减少了一半。最大的海冰量减少了31％（592平方千米），而最大覆盖面积的差异仅为2.6％（32,350平方千米）。总体而言，哈德逊湾海冰厚度的消耗遵循东南-西北梯度。哈德逊海峡和翁加瓦湾的海冰厚度比冬季当前的气候条件薄50％。该模型表明，海冰气候和热量含量的最大变化将发生在东南哈德逊湾，詹姆斯湾和哈德逊海峡。

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  • 来源
    《Climate dynamics》 |2011年第10期|p.1835-1849|共15页
  • 作者

    S. Joly; S. Senneville; D. Caya; F. J. Saucier;

  • 作者单位

    Institut des Sciences de la Mer de Rimouski, Universite du Quebec a Rimouski, 310 allee des Ursulines, Rimouski, QC G5L 3A1, Canada;

    Institut des Sciences de la Mer de Rimouski, Universite du Quebec a Rimouski, 310 allee des Ursulines, Rimouski, QC G5L 3A1, Canada;

    Consortium Ouranos, 550 Sherbrooke Ouest, 19e etage, Tour Ouest, Montreal, QC H3A 1B9, Canada;

    Institut des Sciences de la Mer de Rimouski, Universite du Quebec a Rimouski, 310 allee des Ursulines, Rimouski, QC G5L 3A1, Canada;

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