...
  • 主题
高级搜索  >
历史搜索 清空历史
首页> 外文期刊>Climatic Change >How Much Warming are We Committed to and How Much can be Avoided?
【24h】

How Much Warming are We Committed to and How Much can be Avoided?

机译：我们致力于多少变暖，可以避免多少变暖？

获取原文
获取原文并翻译 | 示例
           
页面导航
  • 摘要
  • 著录项
  • 相似文献
  • 相关主题

摘要

This paper examines different concepts of a ‘warming commitment’ which is often used in various ways to describe or imply that a certain level of warming is irrevocably committed to over time frames such as the next 50 to 100 years, or longer. We review and quantify four different concepts, namely (1) a ‘constant emission warming commitment’, (2) a ‘present forcing warming commitment’, (3) a‘zero emission (geophysical) warming commitment’ and (4) a ‘feasible scenario warming commitment’. While a ‘feasible scenario warming commitment’ is probably the most relevant one for policy making, it depends centrally on key assumptions as to the technical, economic and political feasibility of future greenhouse gas emission reductions. This issue is of direct policy relevance when one considers that the 2002 global mean temperatures were 0.8± 0.2 ∘C above the pre-industrial (1861–1890) mean and the European Union has a stated goal of limiting warming to 2 ∘C above the pre-industrial mean: What is the risk that we are committed to overshoot 2 ∘C? Using a simple climate model (MAGICC) for probabilistic computations based on the conventional IPCC uncertainty range for climate sensitivity (1.5 to 4.5 ∘C), we found that (1) a constant emission scenario is virtually certain to overshoot 2 ∘C with a central estimate of 2.0 ∘C by 2100 (4.2 ∘C by 2400). (2) For the present radiative forcing levels it seems unlikely that 2 ∘C are overshoot. (central warming estimate 1.1 ∘C by 2100 and 1.2 ∘C by 2400 with ∼10% probability of overshooting 2 ∘C). However, the risk of overshooting is increasing rapidly if radiative forcing is stabilized much above 400 ppm CO2 equivalence (1.95 W/m2) in the long-term. (3) From a geophysical point of view, if all human-induced emissions were ceased tomorrow, it seems ‘exceptionally unlikely’ that 2 ∘C will be overshoot (central estimate: 0.7 ∘C by 2100; 0.4 ∘C by 2400). (4) Assuming future emissions according to the lower end of published mitigation scenarios (350 ppm CO2eq to 450 ppm CO2eq) provides the central temperature projections are 1.5 to 2.1 ∘C by 2100 (1.5 to 2.0 ∘C by 2400) with a risk of overshooting 2 ∘C between 10 and 50% by 2100 and 1–32% in equilibrium. Furthermore, we quantify the ‘avoidable warming’ to be 0.16–0.26 ∘C for every 100 GtC of avoided CO2 emissions – based on a range of published mitigation scenarios.
机译：本文研究了“变暖承诺”的不同概念，“变暖承诺”经常以各种方式用于描述或暗示一定程度的变暖是不可逆转地承诺的，例如未来50至100年或更长时间。我们审查并量化了四个不同的概念，即（1）“恒定排放变暖承诺”，（2）“当前强迫变暖承诺”，（3）“零排放（地球物理）变暖承诺”和（4）“变暖承诺”。可行的方案升温承诺”。尽管“可行的情景升温承诺”可能是与决策最相关的一种，但它主要取决于关于未来温室气体减排的技术，经济和政治可行性的关键假设。当人们认为2002年全球平均温度比工业化前的平均温度（1861-1890）高0.8±0.2 CC，并且欧盟有明确的目标将升温限制在2时，这一问题与政策直接相关CC高于工业化前的平均值：我们被承诺超过2 CC的风险是什么？使用简单的气候模型（MAGICC）根据传统IPCC对气候敏感度的不确定性范围（1.5至4.5 CC）进行概率计算，我们发现（1）恒定排放情景实际上肯定会超调2∘ C，到2100年的中心估计值为2.0∘sups（到2400时为4.2 estimatesupC）。 （2）对于目前的辐射强迫水平，似乎2°C不会超调。 （到2100年，中央变暖估计为1.1 andC，到2400年，中央变暖估计为1.2∘C，超过2℃的概率约为10％）。但是，如果长期将辐射强迫稳定在400 ppm CO2当量（1.95 W / m2 ）以上，则过冲的风险会迅速增加。 （3）从地球物理的角度来看，如果明天所有人类诱发的排放都停止，似乎“极不可能”出现2 CC的超调现象（中央估计：到2100年为0.7 CC。 ； 2400时为0.4 byC）。 （4）假设根据已发布的缓解方案下限（350 ppm CO2当量至450 ppm CO2当量）的较低排放量，假设到2015年中心温度预测为1.5至2.1 CC。 2100（2400为1.5至2.0 CC），在2100和1-32％的平衡状态下有2 10C在10至50％之间超调的风险。此外，根据一系列已发布的缓解方案，我们将每100 GtC避免的CO2排放量的“可避免的变暖”量化为0.16-0.26 CC。

著录项

  • 来源
    《Climatic Change》 |2006年第2期|111-149|共39页
  • 作者

    Bill Hare; Malte Meinshausen;

  • 作者单位

    Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK);

    Department of Environmental Sciences Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (ETH Zurich) Environmental PhysicsNational Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR);

  • 收录信息
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

相似文献

  • 外文文献
  • 中文文献
  • 专利
获取原文

客服邮箱：kefu@zhangqiaokeyan.com

京公网安备：11010802029741号 ICP备案号：京ICP备15016152号-6 六维联合信息科技 (北京) 有限公司©版权所有

  • 客服微信

  • 服务号