Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture: A Case of Study of Coffee Production in Veracruz, Mexico

C. Gay; F. Estrada; C. Conde; H. Eakin; L. Villers

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Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture: A Case of Study of Coffee Production in Veracruz, Mexico

机译：气候变化对农业的潜在影响：以墨西哥韦拉克鲁斯州咖啡生产为例

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This paper explores the relation between coffee production and climatic and economic variables in Veracruz in order to estimate the potential impacts of climate change. For this purpose, an econometric model is developed in terms of those variables. The model is validated by means of statistical analysis, and then used to project coffee production under different climatic conditions. Climate change scenarios are produced considering that the observed trends of climate variables will continue to prevail until the year 2020. An approach for constructing simple probability scenarios for future climate variability is presented and used to assess possible impacts of climate change beyond what is expected from changes in mean values.

机译：本文探讨了韦拉克鲁斯州咖啡产量与气候和经济变量之间的关系，以便估算气候变化的潜在影响。为此，根据这些变量开发了计量经济学模型。该模型通过统计分析进行验证，然后用于预测不同气候条件下的咖啡产量。考虑到气候变量的趋势将持续到2020年，因此提出了气候变化方案。提出了一种构建未来气候变化的简单概率方案的方法，该方法用于评估气候变化可能产生的影响，而不是预期的变化。平均值。

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《Climatic Change》 |2006年第4期|259-288|共30页
作者
C. Gay; F. Estrada; C. Conde; H. Eakin; L. Villers;
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Centro de Ciencias de la Atmósfera UNAM Ciudad Universitaria;

Centro de Ciencias de la Atmósfera UNAM Ciudad Universitaria;

Centro de Ciencias de la Atmósfera UNAM Ciudad Universitaria;

Centro de Ciencias de la Atmósfera UNAM Ciudad Universitaria;

Centro de Ciencias de la Atmósfera UNAM Ciudad Universitaria;

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1. Potential impacts of climate change on agriculture: a case of study of coffee production in Veracruz, Mexico. [J] . Gay C, Estrada F, Conde C, Climatic Change . 2006,第3a4期

机译：气候变化对农业的潜在影响：以墨西哥韦拉克鲁斯州咖啡生产研究为例。
2. Potential impacts of climate change on agriculture: a case of study of coffee production in Veracruz, Mexico. [J] . Gay C, Estrada F, Conde C, Climatic Change . 2006,第3a4期

机译：气候变化对农业的潜在影响：以墨西哥韦拉克鲁斯州咖啡生产研究为例。
3. A methodology for the risk assessment of climate variability and change under uncertainty. A case study: coffee production in Veracruz, Mexico [J] . Estrada Francisco, Gay Carlos, Conde Cecilia Climatic Change . 2012,第2期

机译：不确定性下气候变异性和变化风险评估的方法。案例研究：墨西哥韦拉克鲁斯的咖啡生产
4. A Wireless Sensor Network to Study the Impacts of Climate Changes in Agriculture: The Coffee FACE in Brazil [C] . André Torre-Neto, Raquel Ghini International Workshop on Sensor Networks for Supply Chain Management . 2012

机译：无线传感器网络研究气候变化在农业中的影响：巴西咖啡面
5. Mitigation of microclimate variation through agroforestry: Protecting coffee agriculture from the impacts of climate change. [D] . Lin, Brenda B. 2006

机译：通过农林业减轻小气候变化：保护咖啡农业免受气候变化的影响。
6. The Impact of Climate Change on the Potential Distribution of Agricultural Pests: The Case of the Coffee White Stem Borer (Monochamus leuconotus P.) in Zimbabwe [O] . Dumisani Kutywayo, Abel Chemura, Winmore Kusena, -1

机译：气候变化对农业害虫潜在分布的影响：以津巴布韦的咖啡白干Bor虫（Monochamus leuconotus P.）为例
7. A methodology for the risk assessment of climate variability and change under uncertainty. A case study: coffee production in Veracruz, Mexico [O] . Francisco Estrada, Carlos Gay, Cecilia Conde 2011

机译：一种不确定性下气候变异和变化风险评估的方法。案例研究：墨西哥韦拉克鲁斯的咖啡生产

Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture: A Case of Study of Coffee Production in Veracruz, Mexico

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