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首页> 外文期刊>Climatic Change >Arctic climate change with a 2 ∘C global warming: Timing, climate patterns and vegetation change
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Arctic climate change with a 2 ∘C global warming: Timing, climate patterns and vegetation change

机译：全球变暖2℃的北极气候变化：时间，气候模式和植被变化

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摘要

The signatories to United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change are charged with stabilizing the concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere at a level that prevents dangerous interference with the climate system. A number of nations, organizations and scientists have suggested that global mean temperature should not rise over 2 ∘C above preindustrial levels. However, even a relatively moderate target of 2 ∘C has serious implications for the Arctic, where temperatures are predicted to increase at least 1.5 to 2 times as fast as global temperatures. High latitude vegetation plays a significant role in the lives of humans and animals, and in the global energy balance and carbon budget. These ecosystems are expected to be among the most strongly impacted by climate change over the next century. To investigate the potential impact of stabilization of global temperature at 2 ∘C, we performed a study using data from six Global Climate Models (GCMs) forced by four greenhouse gas emissions scenarios, the BIOME4 biogeochemistry-biogeography model, and remote sensing data. GCM data were used to predict the timing and patterns of Arctic climate change under a global mean warming of 2 ∘C. A unified circumpolar classification recognizing five types of tundra and six forest biomes was used to develop a map of observed Arctic vegetation. BIOME4 was used to simulate the vegetation distributions over the Arctic at the present and for a range of 2 ∘C global warming scenarios. The GCMs simulations indicate that the earth will have warmed by 2 ∘C relative to preindustrial temperatures by between 2026 and 2060, by which stage the area-mean annual temperature over the Arctic (60–90∘N) will have increased by between 3.2 and 6.6 ∘C. Forest extent is predicted by BIOME4 to increase in the Arctic on the order of 3 × 106 km2 or 55% with a corresponding 42% reduction in tundra area. Tundra types generally also shift north with the largest reductions in the prostrate dwarf-shrub tundra, where nearly 60% of habitat is lost. Modeled shifts in the potential northern limit of trees reach up to 400 km from the present tree line, which may be limited by dispersion rates. Simulated physiological effects of the CO2 increase (to ca. 475 ppm) at high latitudes were small compared with the effects of the change in climate. The increase in forest area of the Arctic could sequester 600 Pg of additional carbon, though this effect is unlikely to be realized over next century.
机译：《联合国气候变化框架公约》的签署方负责将大气中温室气体的浓度稳定在防止危险干扰气候系统的水平。许多国家，组织和科学家建议，全球平均温度不应比工业化前的水平升高2℃以上。但是，即使是一个相对适中的摄氏2度的目标，也对北极产生严重影响。据预测，北极的气温上升速度至少是全球气温的1.5至2倍。高纬度植被在人类和动物的生命以及全球能源平衡和碳预算中发挥着重要作用。预计这些生态系统将在下一世纪受到气候变化的最大影响。为了研究将全球温度稳定在2°C时可能产生的影响，我们使用了由四种温室气体排放情景，BIOME4生物地球化学-生物地理模型和遥测模型强迫的六个全球气候模型（GCM）的数据进行了一项研究感应数据。 GCM数据用于预测全球平均升温2∘C时北极气候变化的时间和模式。使用识别五种苔原和六个森林生物群落的统一的绕极分类来绘制北极观测植被图。目前，BIOME4被用于模拟目前北极和全球2℃范围内气候变暖情景下的植被分布。 GCMs模拟表明，到2026年至2060年之间，地球相对于工业化前的温度将变暖2℃，到了这个阶段，北极地区的年平均气温（60–90℃ N ）将增加3.2至6.6摄氏度。 BIOME4预测，北极的森林面积将增加3×106 km2 或55％，冻原面积相应减少42％。苔原类型通常也会向北移动，而pro缩矮生灌木冻原的减少量最大，那里几乎失去了60％的栖息地。树木潜在的北限的模型化变化距离当前树线可达400公里，这可能受到散布率的限制。与气候变化的影响相比，高纬度地区CO2 增加的模拟生理影响（达到约475 ppm）很小。北极森林面积的增加可能会吸收600 Pg的额外碳，尽管这种效应在下个世纪不太可能实现。

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  • 来源
    《Climatic Change》 |2006年第4期|213-241|共29页
  • 作者

    Jed O. Kaplan; Mark New;

  • 作者单位

    Institute of Plant Sciences University of Bern;

    Climate Research Lab Centre for the Environment Oxford University;

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  • 正文语种 eng
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