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首页> 外文期刊>Climatic Change >Arctic climate change with a 2 super([compfn])C global warming: Timing, climate patterns and vegetation change
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Arctic climate change with a 2 super([compfn])C global warming: Timing, climate patterns and vegetation change

机译：全球变暖为2 super（[compfn]）C的北极气候变化：时间，气候模式和植被变化

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The signatories to United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change are charged with stabilizing the concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere at a level that prevents dangerous interference with the climate system. A number of nations, organizations and scientists have suggested that global mean temperature should not rise over 2 super([compfn])C above preindustrial levels. However, even a relatively moderate target of 2 super([compfn])C has serious implications for the Arctic, where temperatures are predicted to increase at least 1.5 to 2 times as fast as global temperatures. High latitude vegetation plays a significant role in the lives of humans and animals, and in the global energy balance and carbon budget. These ecosystems are expected to be among the most strongly impacted by climate change over the next century. To investigate the potential impact of stabilization of global temperature at 2 super([compfn])C, we performed a study using data from six Global Climate Models (GCMs) forced by four greenhouse gas emissions scenarios, the BIOME4 biogeochemistry-biogeography model, and remote sensing data. GCM data were used to predict the timing and patterns of Arctic climate change under a global mean warming of 2 super([compfn])C. A unified circumpolar classification recognizing five types of tundra and six forest biomes was used to develop a map of observed Arctic vegetation. BIOME4 was used to simulate the vegetation distributions over the Arctic at the present and for a range of 2 super([compfn])C global warming scenarios. The GCMs simulations indicate that the earth will have warmed by 2 super([compfn])C relative to preindustrial temperatures by between 2026 and 2060, by which stage the area-mean annual temperature over the Arctic (60-90 super([compfn])N) will have increased by between 3.2 and 6.6 super([compfn])C. Forest extent is predicted by BIOME4 to increase in the Arctic on the order of 3 x 10 super(6) km super(2) or 55% with a corresponding 42% reduction in tundra area. Tundra types generally also shift north with the largest reductions in the prostrate dwarf-shrub tundra, where nearly 60% of habitat is lost. Modeled shifts in the potential northern limit of trees reach up to 400 km from the present tree line, which may be limited by dispersion rates. Simulated physiological effects of the CO sub(2) increase (to ca. 475 ppm) at high latitudes were small compared with the effects of the change in climate. The increase in forest area of the Arctic could sequester 600 Pg of additional carbon, though this effect is unlikely to be realized over next century.
机译：《联合国气候变化框架公约》的签署方负责将大气中温室气体的浓度稳定在防止危害气候系统的水平。许多国家，组织和科学家建议，全球平均温度不应超过工业化前的水平超过2摄氏度。但是，即使是相对适中的2超级C的目标也对北极产生了严重影响，北极的温度预计将以至少全球温度的1.5到2倍的速度增长。高纬度植被在人类和动物的生命以及全球能源平衡和碳预算中发挥着重要作用。预计这些生态系统将在下一世纪受到气候变化的最大影响。为了研究全球温度稳定在2 super（[C]）下的潜在影响，我们使用了由四种温室气体排放情景，BIOME4生物地球化学-生物地理模型和遥感数据。 GCM数据用于预测全球平均变暖2℃以上北极气候变化的时间和模式。使用识别五种苔原和六个森林生物群落的统一的绕极分类来绘制观测到的北极植被的地图。目前，BIOME4用于模拟北极地区的植被分布，并用于2种超（[C]）C全球变暖情景。 GCM的模拟表明，到2026年至2060年之间，相对于工业化前的温度，地球将变暖2摄氏度，到那时，北极地区的年平均气温将升高（60-90摄氏度）。 ）N）将增加3.2至6.6 super（[compfn]）C。 BIOME4预测，北极的森林面积将增加3 x 10 super（6）km super（2）或55％，而苔原面积相应减少42％。苔原类型通常也会向北移动，而pro缩矮生灌木冻原的减少量最大，那里几乎丧失了60％的栖息地。树木潜在的北限的模型化变化距离目前的林线可达400公里，这可能会受到散布率的限制。与气候变化的影响相比，高纬度地区CO sub（2）增加的模拟生理效应（达到约475 ppm）很小。北极森林面积的增加可能会吸收600 Pg的额外碳，尽管这种效应在下个世纪不太可能实现。

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