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Making Sense of Dynamic Systems: How Our Understanding of Stocks and Flows Depends on a Global Perspective

机译：理解动态系统：我们对存量和流量的理解如何取决于全局视角

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Stocks and flows (SF) are building blocks of dynamic systems: Stocks change through inflows and outflows, such as our bank balance changing with withdrawals and deposits, or atmospheric CO2 with absorptions and emissions. However, people make systematic errors when trying to infer the behavior of dynamic systems, termed SF failure, whose cognitive explanations are yet unknown. We argue that SF failure appears when people focus on specific system elements (local processing), rather than on the system structure and gestalt (global processing). Using a standard SF task (n=148), SF failure decreased by (a) a global as opposed to local task format; (b) individual global as opposed to local processing styles; and (c) global as opposed to local perceptual priming. These results converge toward local processing as an explanation for SF failure. We discuss theoretical and practical implications on the connections between the scope of attention and understanding of dynamic systems.
机译：库存和流量（SF）是动态系统的基础：库存通过流入和流出而变化，例如我们的银行结余随着取款和存款而变化，或者大气中的CO2随着吸收和排放而变化。但是，人们在尝试推断动态系统的行为时会犯系统错误，称为SF失效，其认知解释尚不清楚。我们认为，当人们关注特定的系统元素（本地处理）而不是系统结构和格式塔（全局处理）时，就会出现SF故障。使用标准SF任务（n = 148），SF失败减少了（a）全局任务而不是本地任务格式； （b）与本地处理方式相对的个别全局； （c）全球性，而不是局部性的感知启动。这些结果趋向于本地处理，作为SF故障的解释。我们讨论了关注范围和对动态系统的理解之间的联系的理论和实践意义。

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