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Risk Uncertainty and Supply Chain Decisions: A Real Options Perspective

机译：风险不确定性和供应链决策：实物期权视角

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摘要

Supply chain risk uncertainty can create severe repercussions, thus it is not surprising that research interest in supply chain risk has been growing. While extant inquiry is informative, there is a lack of investigations that center on supply chain investment decisions when facing high levels of risk uncertainty. Given the potential dollar value involved in these decisions, an understanding of how these supply chain decisions are made is of significant theoretical and practical importance. Real options theory, with its focus on decision making under conditions of uncertainty, is an appealing theoretical lens for this endeavor. In essence, real options theory asserts that managerial decisions center on creating and then exercising or not exercising certain opportunities. To date, theorizing about and investigations of real options have used firms as their focus. Not yet examined are real options within supply chains that cross firm boundaries and drive much of the competitive activity in the modern economy. Accordingly, we extend real options theory to the supply chain context by examining how different types of options are approached relative to supply chain project investments. Specifically, we theorize how the options will be related to perceived value under conditions of high supply chain risk uncertainty. Overall, our investigation builds knowledge by extending real options theory to the supply chain context and by providing evidence suggesting some options operate differently in supply chains than they do in firms.
机译：供应链风险的不确定性会造成严重影响，因此对供应链风险的研究兴趣不断增长也就不足为奇了。尽管现存的询问是有益的，但是当面临高水平的风险不确定性时，缺乏针对供应链投资决策的调查。考虑到这些决策涉及的潜在美元价值，了解如何做出这些供应链决策具有重要的理论和实践意义。实物期权理论着重于不确定性条件下的决策制定，是这一努力的吸引人的理论镜头。本质上，实物期权理论断言，管理决策的重点是创造机会，然后行使或不行使某些机会。迄今为止，对实物期权进行理论化和调查已将公司作为研究重点。跨公司边界并推动现代经济中许多竞争活动的供应链中的实际选择尚未得到检验。因此，通过检查相对于供应链项目投资如何采用不同类型的期权，我们将实物期权理论扩展到了供应链环境。具体而言，我们对在高供应链风险不确定性条件下期权与感知价值的关系进行了理论化。总体而言，我们的研究通过将实物期权理论扩展到供应链环境并提供证据表明某些期权在供应链中的运作方式与公司中的运作方式不同而建立了知识。

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