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Contingent valuation study of the benefits of seasonal climate forecasts for maize farmers in the Republic of Benin, West Africa

机译：西非贝宁共和国季节性气候预报对玉米种植者的好处的或有估值研究

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Abstract This study aims to assess the economic benefits of seasonal climate forecasts in West Africa based on a random survey of 354 maize farmers and to use the contingent valuation method. Results indicate that farmers need accurate seasonal climate forecasts between 1 and 2 months before the onset of rains. The most desirable dissemination channels are radio, local elders, local farmer meetings and extension agents. The most likely used farming strategies are change of: planting date, crop acreage, crop variety, and production intensification. The vast majority of farmers are willing to pay for seasonal climate forecasts, and the average annual economic value of seasonal climate forecasts are about {USD} 5492 for the 354 sampled farmers and {USD} 66.5 million dollar at the national level. Furthermore, benefits of seasonal climate forecasts are likely to increase with better access to farmer based organisation, to extension services, to financial services, to modern communication tools, intensity of use of fertilizer and with larger farm sizes. Seasonal climate forecasts are a source of improvement of farmers’ performance and the service should be integrated in extension programmes and in national agricultural development agenda.
机译：摘要本研究旨在通过对354名玉米农户进行随机调查，评估西非季节性气候预报的经济效益，并使用或有估值法。结果表明，农民需要在降雨开始前的1到2个月之间进行准确的季节性气候预测。最理想的传播渠道是广播电台，当地长者，当地农民聚会和推广人员。最可能使用的耕作策略是更改种植日期，作物面积，作物品种和生产集约化。绝大多数农民愿意为季节性气候预报支付费用，354名抽样农民的季节性气候预报的年均经济价值约为5492美元，而在国家一级约为6650万美元。此外，随着与农民组织，推广服务，金融服务，现代通讯工具的使用，肥料使用强度的提高以及农场规模的扩大，季节性气候预测的好处可能会增加。季节性气候预报是改善农民绩效的源泉，应将其纳入推广计划和国家农业发展议程中。

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