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Lesser Scaup Population Dynamics: What Can Be Learned from Available Data?

机译：小鳞茎种群动态：可从可用数据中学到什么？

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Populations of Lesser Scaup (Aythya affinis) have declined markedly in North America since the early 1980s. When considering alternatives for achieving population recovery, it would be useful to understand how the rate of population growth is functionally related to the underlying vital rates and which vital rates affect population growth rate the most if changed (which need not be those that influenced historical population declines). To establish a more quantitative basis for learning about life history and population dynamics of Lesser Scaup, we summarized published and unpublished estimates of vital rates recorded between 1934 and 2005, and developed matrix life-cycle models with these data for females breeding in the boreal forest, prairie-parklands, and both regions combined. We then used perturbation analysis to evaluate the effect of changes in a variety of vital-rate statistics on finite population growth rate and abundance. Similar to Greater Scaup (Aythya marila), our modeled population growth rate for Lesser Scaup was most sensitive to unit and proportional change in adult female survival during the breeding and non-breeding seasons, but much less so to changes in fecundity parameters. Interestingly, population growth rate was also highly sensitive to unit and proportional changes in the mean of nesting success, duckling survival, and juvenile survival. Given the small samples of data for key aspects of the Lesser Scaup life cycle, we recommend additional research on vital rates that demonstrate a strong effect on population growth and size (e.g., adult survival probabilities). Our life-cycle models should be tested and regularly updated in the future to simultaneously guide science and management of Lesser Scaup populations in an adaptive context.
机译：自1980年代初以来，北美小鳞ca（Aythya affinis）的人口已明显减少。在考虑实现人口恢复的替代方法时，了解人口增长率如何与基本生命率在功能上相关以及哪些生命率如果发生变化对人口增长率的影响最大（这不必是那些影响历史人口的变化），将很有用。下降）。为了建立一个更定量的基础来学习小小斑潜蝇的生活史和种群动态，我们总结了1934年至2005年间记录的已记录和未记录的生命率估计值，并开发了具有这些数据的矩阵生命周期模型，供北方森林中的雌性繁殖，草原公园和这两个地区的总和。然后，我们使用扰动分析来评估各种生命率统计数据的变化对有限人口增长率和数量的影响。与Great Scaup（Aythya marila）相似，我们为小Scaup建模的人口增长率对成年和非繁殖季节成年雌性成活的单位和比例变化最敏感，而对繁殖力参数的变化则最不敏感。有趣的是，人口增长率对筑巢成功率，小鸭存活率和少年存活率的平均值和单位变化也高度敏感。鉴于小鳞茎生命周期关键方面的数据样本较少，我们建议对生命率进行更多研究，以证明对人口增长和规模（例如成年存活率）有很大影响。我们的生命周期模型应在未来进行测试并定期进行更新，以在适应性环境中同时指导小鳞茎种群的科学和管理。

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