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首页> 外文期刊>International Journal of Finance and Accounting >Discriminant Analysis and the Prediction of Corporate Bankruptcy in the Banking Sector of Nigeria
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Discriminant Analysis and the Prediction of Corporate Bankruptcy in the Banking Sector of Nigeria

机译：尼日利亚银行业的判别分析和公司破产的预测

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The need to predict the potential of failure in commercial banks has become an important and reoccurring decimal. The main thrust of this study is to investigate the potency of the Multiple Discriminant Analysis Model (propounded by Altman, 1968) in ascertaining the state of health of these banks. Two ‘failed’ and two non-failed banks (as adjudged by Central Bank of Nigeria) constitute the sample of the study within a five year period (1999-2003). Contrary to regulatory agencies’ stand, Z Scores of the two non-failed banks were found to be below 1.80 indicating ill-health. The study also confirms the ill health of a bank (whose license has since been revoked) while the Z Scores of the second bank-hitherto classified as ‘failed bank’ – is found to be above 3.00. It was concluded that the MDA model is still a potent tool in the prediction of the potential of failure; the key variables in the Altman’s model are positive indicators in the analysis and regulatory agencies have not been upright in implementing results of analysis. The paper recommends the unification of the MDA model with others; the improvement of the MDA parameters and EPS. Also, regulatory agencies should be upright and impartial in applying results of the model.
机译：预测商业银行倒闭潜力的需求已成为重要且反复出现的小数。这项研究的主要目的是研究多重判别分析模型（由Altman，1968年提出）在确定这些银行的健康状况方面的潜力。五年（1999-2003年）内的研究样本包括两家“失败的”和两家未破产的银行（由尼日利亚中央银行裁定）。与监管机构的立场相反，两家未破产银行的Z得分均低于1.80，表明其健康状况不佳。这项研究还证实了银行的不良健康状况（自那以后已被吊销了执照），而第二家银行的Z得分迄今被归类为“失败银行”，被发现高于3.00。结论是，MDA模型仍然是预测潜在故障的有效工具。奥特曼模型中的关键变量是分析中的积极指标，而监管机构在实施分析结果时并未直言不讳。本文建议将MDA模型与其他模型统一。 MDA参数和EPS的改善。此外，监管机构在应用模型结果时应保持正直和公正。

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