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首页> 外文期刊>IZA Journal of Labor Economics >The causal effect of the great recession on childlessness of white American women
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The causal effect of the great recession on childlessness of white American women

机译：大衰退对美国白人妇女无子女的因果关系

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Abstract Many studies have documented a negative association between macroeconomic indicators and fertility in times of economic crisis. These studies are based on research designs that do not allow for excluding that the observed association is driven by confounders. The aim of the present paper is to estimate the causal effect of the Great Recession on cohorts’ childlessness in the United States. We apply a difference-in-difference approach to the probability of childlessness in two pseudo-cohorts of white women who entered the age of 34–36 years old being childless before the crisis, in 2004, and at the onset of the crisis, in 2007. Our identification strategy relies on the assumption that these two adjacent cohorts of women differ only because the latter cohort lived some critical years of reproductive life during the Great Recession period. We then study how many childless women aged 34–36 had a child when they were 37–39, between the years 2004 and 2007 for the control group and between the years 2007 and 2010 for the treatment group. We argue that an increase of childlessness at the age 37–39 is likely to lead to an increase in permanent childlessness, since major catch-up processes are unlikely after age 40. We replicate the analysis on two datasets: the American Community Survey and the Fertility Supplement of the Current Population Survey. Our findings suggest that the Great Recession has had a positive, though mild, effect on childlessness of white women at about the age of 40 in the US. JEL codes: Z0, J1, J110, J130, C21*
机译：摘要许多研究表明，在经济危机时期，宏观经济指标与生育率之间存在负相关关系。这些研究基于研究设计，不允许排除观察到的关联是由混杂因素驱动的。本文的目的是评估美国大萧条对同龄人无子女的因果关系。我们采用差异分析的方法，对2004年危机之前和危机爆发前进入年龄在34-36岁之间的两名白人妇女无子女的两个假队列中的无子女概率。 2007年。我们的识别策略基于这样的假设，即这两个相邻的女性群体之所以不同，仅是因为后者的女性在大萧条时期生活了一些关键的生殖年。然后，我们研究了在2004年至2007年之间的对照组和在2007年至2010年之间的治疗组中，当37岁至39岁之间有34-36岁的无子女妇女生育了一个孩子。我们认为，由于40岁以后不太可能进行重大追赶，因此37-39岁无子女的增加很可能导致永久性无子女的增加。我们在两个数据集上进行了重复分析：美国社区调查和当前人口调查的生育补编。我们的研究结果表明，大萧条对美国40岁左右的白人妇女的无生育能力产生了积极但积极的影响。 JEL代码：Z0，J1，J110，J130，C21 *

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