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首页> 外文期刊>Ecosphere >Effects of climate change and anthropogenic modification on a disturbance‐dependent species in a large riverine system
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Effects of climate change and anthropogenic modification on a disturbance‐dependent species in a large riverine system

机译：气候变化和人为改变对大型河流系统中依赖干扰物种的影响

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Humans have altered nearly every natural disturbance regime on the planet through climate and land‐use change, and in many instances, these processes may have interacting effects. For example, projected shifts in temperature and precipitation will likely influence disturbance regimes already affected by anthropogenic fire suppression or river impoundments. Understanding how disturbance‐dependent species respond to complex and interacting environmental changes is important for conservation efforts. Using field‐based demographic and movement rates, we conducted a metapopulation viability analysis for piping plovers (Charadrius melodus ), a threatened disturbance‐dependent species, along the Missouri and Platte rivers in the Great Plains of North America. Our aim was to better understand current and projected future metapopulation dynamics given that natural disturbances (flooding or high‐flow events) have been greatly reduced by river impoundments and that climate change could further alter the disturbance regime. Although metapopulation abundance has been substantially reduced under the current suppressed disturbance regime (high‐flow return interval?~?20?yr), it could grow if the frequency of high‐flow events increases as predicted under likely climate change scenarios. We found that a four‐year return interval would maximize metapopulation abundance, and all subpopulations in the metapopulation would act as sources at a return interval of 15?yr or less. Regardless of disturbance frequency, the presence of even a small, stable source subpopulation buffered the metapopulation and sustained a low metapopulation extinction risk. Therefore, climate change could have positive effects in ecosystems where disturbances have been anthropogenically suppressed when climatic shifts move disturbance regimes toward more historical patterns. Furthermore, stable source populations, even if unintentionally maintained through anthropogenic activities, may be critical for the persistence of metapopulations of early‐successional species under both suppressed disturbance regimes and disturbance regimes where climate change has further altered disturbance frequency or scope.
机译：人类通过气候和土地利用的变化改变了地球上几乎所有的自然干扰机制，并且在许多情况下，这些过程可能会产生相互作用。例如，预计的温度和降水变化可能会影响已经受到人为灭火或河流蓄水影响的干扰状况。了解与干扰有关的物种如何应对复杂而相互作用的环境变化对于保护工作非常重要。我们使用基于野外的人口统计和移动速度，对北美大平原的密苏里河和普拉特河沿岸的管道pl（ Charadrius melodus），一种受到干扰的依赖物种进行了种群动态分析。我们的目的是更好地了解当前和预计的未来种群动态，因为河水蓄积大大减少了自然干扰（洪水或高流量事件），而且气候变化可能会进一步改变干扰机制。尽管在当前受抑制的干扰机制（高流量返回间隔？〜？20？yr）下，种群数量的丰度已经大大降低了，但如果高流量事件的频率如在可能的气候变化情景下所预测的那样增加，则可能会增加。我们发现，四年的返回间隔将最大限度地提高子种群的数量，并且该子种群中的所有子种群都将以15？yr或更短的返回间隔作为来源。无论干扰频率如何，即使是很小的稳定来源亚群也能缓冲该亚群，并维持较低的亚群灭绝风险。因此，气候变化可能会对生态系统产生积极影响，在生态系统中，当气候变化使干扰机制趋向于更历史的格局时，人为干扰得到了抑制。此外，稳定的源种群，即使是通过人为活动无意维持的种群，对于在抑制性干扰制度和气候变化进一步改变了干扰频率或范围的干扰制度下，早期成功物种的种群持续存在可能至关重要。

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