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Quantitative Assessment of Epistemic Uncertainties in Tsunami Hazard Effects on Building Risk Assessments

机译：海啸危害中的认知不确定性的定量评估对建筑物风险评估的影响

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Based on the definition of tsunami risk, we quantitatively evaluated the annual expected tsunami loss ratio (Tsunami Risk Index) and clarified the quantitative effects of epistemic uncertainties in tsunami hazard assessments on the tsunami risk of buildings by combining probabilistic information regarding tsunami inundation depths at target points and tsunami fragility assessments of buildings. For the risk assessment, we targeted buildings with four different structures (reinforced concrete, steel, brick, wood) located in three different areas (Soma, Sendai, Kesennuma). In conclusion, we demonstrated that the expected tsunami risk could vary by approximately two orders of magnitude when considering tsunami hazard uncertainties between the 95th percentile and the 5th percentile. In addition, we quantitatively clarified the fact that we cannot properly understand the tsunami risk by evaluating the tsunami fragility alone. For example, the analysis results indicate that the tsunami risk of a wood building located in Kesennuma is lower than that of a reinforced concrete building located in either Soma or Sendai.
机译：基于海啸风险的定义，我们通过结合目标海啸淹没深度的概率信息，定量评估了年度预期海啸损失率（海啸风险指数），并阐明了海啸风险评估中认识不确定性对建筑物海啸风险的量化影响。建筑物的要点和海啸脆弱性评估。为了进行风险评估，我们针对位于三个不同区域（索马，仙台，气仙沼）的具有四种不同结构（钢筋混凝土，钢，砖，木）的建筑物。总之，我们证明了在考虑第95个百分位数和第5个百分位数之间的海啸危害不确定性时，预期的海啸风险可能会变化大约两个数量级。另外，我们定量地澄清了这样一个事实，即我们仅通过评估海啸的脆弱性就无法正确理解海啸的风险。例如，分析结果表明，位于气仙沼的木结构建筑的海啸风险低于位于索马或仙台的钢筋混凝土建筑的海啸风险。

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