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Effect of Model Resolution on Tropical Cyclone Climate Projections

机译:模型分辨率对热带气旋气候预估的影响

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References(16) Cited-By(51) Supplementary materials(4) The effect of model resolution on projected climatological features of tropical cyclones (TCs) was investigated via 25-year present-day and future global warming projections using the Japan Meteorological Agency/Meteorological Research Institute Atmospheric General Circulation Model with four resolutions ranging from TL95 (180-km mesh) to TL959 (20-km mesh). The finest resolution (TL959) showed the highest skills in terms of TC intensity and interannual and seasonal variations in TC genesis number. Resolutions of TL319 (60-km mesh) and finer showed a significant future increase in the frequency of intense TCs, whereas resolutions coarser than TL319 showed no such change, indicating that TL319 is the critical resolution in projecting future change in the frequency of intense TCs. Overall, high model resolution is preferable for realistic and reliable climate projections. Resolutions of TL159 (120-km mesh) and finer showed similar skills, biases, and future changes in the spatial pattern of TC genesis frequency (TGF) and TC genesis number, indicating the potential use of lower model resolutions for minimizing uncertainties in future changes in the mean state of TGF and TC genesis number.
机译:参考文献(16)被引用的参考文献(51)补充材料(4)使用日本气象厅/气象厅/研究所通过25年当前和未来的全球变暖预测调查了模型分辨率对热带气旋(TC)预计气候特征的影响。气象研究所大气总循环模型,具有四种分辨率,范围从TL95(180公里网眼)到TL959(20公里网眼)。最高分辨率(TL959)在TC强度以及TC起源数的年际和季节变化方面显示出最高的技能。 TL319(60公里网眼)或更高分辨率的分辨率显示,将来强烈的TC频率会显着增加,而比TL319粗糙的分辨率则没有这种变化,这表明TL319是预测将来强烈TC频率变化的关键分辨率。 。总体而言,高分辨率模型对于现实可靠的气候预测是可取的。 TL159(120公里网格)或更高分辨率的分辨率显示出相似的技能,偏见以及TC创始频率(TGF)和TC创始数目的空间模式的未来变化,表明可能使用较低的模型分辨率来最大程度地减少未来变化的不确定性处于TGF和TC发生状态的平均状态。

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