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Evaluation of numerical weather prediction model precipitation forecasts for short-term streamflow forecasting purpose

机译：用于短期流量预报的数值天气预报模型降水预报的评估

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The quality of precipitation forecasts from four Numerical WeatherPrediction (NWP) models is evaluated over the Ovens catchment in SoutheastAustralia. Precipitation forecasts are compared with observed precipitationat point and catchment scales and at different temporal resolutions. Thefour models evaluated are the Australian Community Climate Earth-SystemSimulator (ACCESS) including ACCESS-G with a 80 km resolution, ACCESS-R 37.5 km, ACCESS-A 12 km, and ACCESS-VT 5 km.The skill of the NWP precipitation forecasts varies considerably betweenrain gauging stations. In general, high spatial resolution (ACCESS-A andACCESS-VT) and regional (ACCESS-R) NWP models overestimate precipitation indry, low elevation areas and underestimate in wet, high elevation areas. Theglobal model (ACCESS-G) consistently underestimates the precipitation at allstations and the bias increases with station elevation. The skill varieswith forecast lead time and, in general, it decreases with the increasinglead time. When evaluated at finer spatial and temporal resolution (e.g. 5 km,hourly), the precipitation forecasts appear to have very little skill.There is moderate skill at short lead times when the forecasts are averagedup to daily and/or catchment scale. The precipitation forecasts fail toproduce a diurnal cycle shown in observed precipitation. Significantsampling uncertainty in the skill scores suggests that more data arerequired to get a reliable evaluation of the forecasts. The non-smooth decayof skill with forecast lead time can be attributed to diurnal cycle in theobservation and sampling uncertainty.Future work is planned to assess the benefits of using the NWP rainfallforecasts for short-term streamflow forecasting. Our findings here suggestthat it is necessary to remove the systematic biases in rainfall forecasts,particularly those from low resolution models, before the rainfall forecastscan be used for streamflow forecasting.
机译：通过对澳大利亚东南部烤箱集水区的四个数值天气预报（NWP）模型的降水预报质量进行了评估。在点和汇水规模以及不同的时间分辨率下，将降水预报与观测到的降水进行比较。评估的四个模型是澳大利亚共同体气候地球系统模拟器（ACCESS），包括分辨率为80 km的ACCESS-G，ACCESS-R 37.5 km，ACCESS-A 12 km和ACCESS-VT 5 km。 NWP降水预报的技巧在雨水测量站之间存在很大差异。通常，高空间分辨率（ACCESS-A和ACCESS-VT）和区域（ACCESS-R）NWP模型高估了干燥低海拔地区的降水，而低估了潮湿高海拔地区的降水。全球模型（ACCESS-G）始终低估了所有站点的降水量，且偏差随站点高度的增加而增加。该技能随预测的交货时间而变化，并且通常随着交货时间的增加而降低。当以更好的时空分辨率（例如每小时5公里）进行评估时，降水预报的技能似乎很少。当预报平均到每日和/或集水规模时，在较短的交货期中就有中等技能。降水预报无法产生观测降水中显示的昼夜周期。技能得分的不确定性抽样表明，需要更多数据才能对预测进行可靠的评估。具有预报提前期的技能的非平稳衰减可以归因于观测和采样不确定性的昼夜周期。 计划开展未来工作，以评估将NWP降雨预报用于短期流量预报的好处。我们在这里的发现表明，在将降雨预报用于流量预报之前，有必要消除降雨量预报中的系统偏差，尤其是那些来自低分辨率模型的偏差。

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