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China’s Evolving Nuclear Forces: Changes, Rationales and Implications

机译:中国不断发展的核力量:变化,理由和启示

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China is embarking on a comprehensive modernization program to quantitatively and qualitatively improve their nuclear force. These efforts, however, do not reflect or indicate a distinct shift in Chinese views towards or policy governing the purpose and use of nuclear weapons, but to achieve and maintain a secured second strike capability in a changing strategic landscape. Specifically, military developments by the United States including Ballistic Missile Defence and Precision Global Strike are seen as threatening the credibility of their nuclear deterrent, motivating the construction and deployment of a more modern, diverse and capable force. These force reconfigurations, however, create the potential of causing confusing and misunderstandings with the United States, and other nuclear powers, of the rationales informing their improvement. Ensuring the nuclear force balance between Beijing and Washington remains a minor and largely benign matter separated from and not influencing other more divisive matters is critical in the maintenance of their relatively stable, but increasingly complicated and tense, great power relationship and the international system in general. In order to achieve this, both states must clearly signal an understanding of their nuclear relationship as one defined by mutual vulnerability and the necessity of providing guarantees and evidence that their respective military technological developments and force structure changes are not designed to alter this reality.
机译:中国正在实施一项全面的现代化计划,从数量和质量上提高其核力量。但是,这些努力并没有反映或表明中国对核武器的目的和使用的看法或政策有明显的转变,而是在不断变化的战略格局中实现并维持了有保障的二次打击能力。具体而言,美国的军事发展,包括弹道导弹防御系统和“精确全球打击”,被视为威胁其核威慑力量的可信度,从而刺激了一支更现代化,多样化和能力更强的部队的建设和部署。但是,这些部队的重新配置可能会引起与美国及其他核大国混淆的信息,并引起对它们进行改进的理由的误解。确保北京和华盛顿之间的核力量平衡仍然是次要的,与其他分裂性问题分开并且不影响其他分裂性问题的良性问题,对于维持它们相对稳定,但日益复杂和紧张的大国关系和整个国际体系至关重要。 。为了实现这一目标,两国必须明确表示对它们的核关系的理解,这种核关系是由相互脆弱性定义的,并且有必要提供保证和证据,证明各自的军事技术发展和部队结构的改变并非旨在改变这一现实。

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