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Sequential forecasting of the surface and subsurface conditions in the Japan Sea

机译：日本海表层和地下条件的顺序预报

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This study estimates a realistic change of the Japan Sea by assimilating satellite measurements into an eddy-resolving circulation model. Suboptimal but feasible assimilation schemes of approximate filtering and nudging play essential roles in the system. The sequential update of error covariance significantly outperforms the asymptotic covariance in the sequential assimilation due to the irregular sampling patterns from multiple altimeter satellites. The best estimates show an average rms difference of only 1.2°C from the radiometer data, and also explain about half of the sea level variance measured by the altimeter observation. The subsurface conditions associated with the mesoscale variabilities are also improved, especially in the Tsushima Warm Current region. It is demonstrated that the forecast limit strongly depends on variable, depth, and location.
机译：这项研究通过将卫星测量结果纳入解析涡旋的环流模型中，估算了日本海的现实变化。近似滤波和微调的次优但可行同化方案在系统中起着至关重要的作用。由于来自多个高度计卫星的不规则采样模式，误差协方差的顺序更新在序列同化中明显优于渐近协方差。最佳估计值表明，与辐射计数据相比，平均均方根差仅为1.2°C，并且还可以解释通过高度计观测到的大约一半的海平面变化。与中尺度变化有关的地下条件也得到了改善，特别是在对马暖流地区。事实证明，预报极限在很大程度上取决于变量，深度和位置。

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