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首页> 外文期刊>Climate of the past >Comparison of observed borehole temperatures in Antarctica with simulations using a forward model driven by climate model outputs covering the past millennium
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Comparison of observed borehole temperatures in Antarctica with simulations using a forward model driven by climate model outputs covering the past millennium

机译：利用气候模型输出覆盖过去千年的前向模型观察到南极井眼温度与模拟的比较

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The reconstructed surface-temperature time series from boreholes in Antarctica have significantly contributed to our understanding of multidecadal and centennial temperature changes and thus provide a good way to evaluate the ability of climate models to reproduce low-frequency climate variability. However, up to now, there has not been any systematic model–data comparison based on temperature from boreholes at a regional or local scale in Antarctica. Here, we discuss two different ways to perform such a comparison using borehole measurements and the corresponding reconstructions of surface temperature at the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) Divide, Larissa, Mill Island, and Styx Glacier in Antarctica. The standard approach is to compare the surface temperature simulated by the climate model at the grid cell closest to each site with the reconstructions in the time domain derived from the borehole temperature observations. Although some characteristics of the reconstructions, for instance the nonuniform smoothing, limit to some extent the model–data comparison, several robust features can be evaluated. In addition, a more direct model–data comparison based on the temperature measured in the boreholes is conducted using a forward model that simulates explicitly the subsurface temperature profiles when driven with climate model outputs. This comparison in the depth domain is not only generally consistent with observations made in the time domain but also provides information that cannot easily be inferred from the comparison in the time domain. The major results from these comparisons are used to derive metrics that can be applied for future model–data comparison. We also describe the spatial representativity of the sites chosen for the metrics. The long-term cooling trend in West Antarctica from 1000 to 1600 CE (?1.0 °C) is generally reproduced by the models but often with a weaker amplitude. The 19th century cooling in the Antarctic Peninsula (?0.94 °C) is not reproduced by any of the models, which tend to show warming instead. The trend over the last 50?years is generally well reproduced in West Antarctica and at Larissa (Antarctic Peninsula) but overestimated at other sites. The wide range of simulated trends indicates the importance of internal variability in the observed trends and shows the value of model–data comparison to investigate the response to forcings.
机译：从南极钻孔的重建的表面温度时间序列显着促进了我们对多户和百年温度变化的理解，从而提供了评估气候模型再现低频气候变化的能力的好方法。然而，到目前为止，基于在南极洲的区域或局部尺度的钻孔的温度没有任何系统模型 - 数据比较。在这里，我们讨论了使用钻孔测量和西南极冰盖（WAIS）划分，Larissa，Mill Island和Styx冰川在南极洲的山顶测量和表面温度的相应重建来执行这种比较。标准方法是将气候模型模拟的表面温度与源自钻孔温度观测的时域中的时域中的重建进行比较。虽然重建的一些特征，例如非均匀平滑，但极限在某种程度上可以评估多种鲁棒特征。另外，使用基于在钻孔中测量的温度的更直接的模型 - 数据比较使用前向模型进行，该模型在随着气候模型输出驱动时模拟了地下温度剖面。深度域中的这种比较通常不仅与时域中的观察结果一致，而且还提供从时域中的比较中不易推断的信息。这些比较的主要结果用于导出可用于未来模型数据比较的度量。我们还描述了为度量选择的站点的空间代表性。西南极洲的长期冷却趋势从1000到1600 CE（？1.0°C）通常由模型再现，但通常具有较弱的幅度。任何型号都没有被任何型号再现在南极半岛（？0.94°C）中冷却的19世纪。过去50人的趋势通常在西南极洲和南极半岛（南极半岛）中繁殖，但在其他地点估计。广泛的模拟趋势表示观察到的趋势中内部变异性的重要性，并显示了模型数据比较的价值，以研究对强制的响应。

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