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首页> 外文期刊>Environmental health perspectives. >A Probabilistic Approach to Evaluate the Risk of Decreased Total Triiodothyronine Hormone Levels following Chronic Exposure to PFOS and PFHxS via Contaminated Drinking Water
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A Probabilistic Approach to Evaluate the Risk of Decreased Total Triiodothyronine Hormone Levels following Chronic Exposure to PFOS and PFHxS via Contaminated Drinking Water

机译：通过受污染的饮用水评估慢性暴露于PFOS和PFHX的慢性暴露后，评估慢性暴露的总三碘甲醇激素水平降低的概率方法

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Background: Extensive exposure to per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) have been observed in many countries. Current deterministic frameworks for risk assessment lack the ability to predict the likelihood of effects and to assess uncertainty. When exposure exceeds tolerable intake levels, these shortcomings hamper risk management and communication. Objective: The integrated probabilistic risk assessment (IPRA) combines dose-response and exposure data to estimate the likelihood of adverse effects. We evaluated the usefulness of the IPRA for risk characterization related to decreased levels of total triiodothyronine ( T 3 ) in humans following a real case of high exposure to PFAS via drinking water. Methods: PFAS exposure was defined as serum levels from residents of a contaminated area in Ronneby, Sweden. Median levels were 270 ng / mL [perfluorooctane sulfonic acid (PFOS)] and 229 ng / mL [perfluorohexane sulfonic acid (PFHxS)] for individuals who resided in Ronneby 1 y before the exposure termination. This data was integrated with data from a subchronic toxicity study in monkeys exposed daily to PFOS. Benchmark dose modeling was employed to describe separate dose–effect relationship for males and females, and extrapolation factor distributions were used to estimate the corresponding human benchmark dose. The critical effect level was defined as a 10% decrease in total T 3 . Results: The median probability of critical exposure, following a combined exposure to PFOS and PFHxS, was estimated to be [2.1% (90% CI: 0.4 % – 13.1 % )]. Gender-based analysis showed that this risk was almost entirely distributed among women, namely [3.9% (90% CI: 0.8 % – 21.6 % )]. Discussion: The IPRA was compared with the traditional deterministic Margin of Exposure (MoE) approach. We conclude that probabilistic risk characterization represents an important step forward in the ability to adequately analyze group-specific health risks. Moreover, quantifying the sources of uncertainty is desirable, as it improves the awareness among stakeholders and will guide future efforts to improve accuracy.
机译：背景：许多国家已经观察到广泛的暴露和多氟烷基物质（PFA）。风险评估的当前确定性框架缺乏预测效果可能性和评估不确定性的能力。当曝光超过可容忍的进气水平时，这些缺点妨碍了风险管理和沟通。目的：综合概率风险评估（IPRA）结合了剂量 - 响应和曝光数据来估计不利影响的可能性。我们评估了在通过饮用水高暴露于PFA的实际情况之后，对人类的风险表征的有效性与人类的总三碘甲醇（T 3）水平降低。方法：PFA暴露被定义为瑞典罗恩比污染区居民的血清水平。中值水平为270ng / ml [全氟辛烷磺酸（PFOS）]和229ng / ml [全氟己烷磺酸（PFHXS）]在暴露终止之前搬迁在ronneby 1 y中的个体。该数据与来自每天暴露于PFOS的猴子的子温度毒性研究的数据集成。基准剂量造型用于描述男性和女性的单独剂量效应关系，并使用外推分布来估计相应的人基准剂量。临界效应水平定义为总T 3的10％降低。结果：估计对PFOS和PFHX的合并暴露后临界暴露的中值概率估计是[2.1％（90％CI：0.4％ - 13.1％）]。基于性别的分析表明，这种风险几乎完全分布在女性中，即[3.9％（90％CI：0.8％ - 21.6％）]。讨论：将IPRA与传统的暴露（MOE）方法进行比较。我们得出结论，概率风险表征是充分分析特定群体健康风险的能力前进的重要一步。此外，量化不确定性的来源是可取的，因为它提高了利益相关者的意识，并将导致未来的努力提高准确性。

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