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首页> 外文期刊>SOLA: Scientific Online Letters on the Atmosphere >Application of Quantile Mapping Bias Correction for Mid-Future Precipitation Projections over Vietnam
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Application of Quantile Mapping Bias Correction for Mid-Future Precipitation Projections over Vietnam

机译：定量映射偏压校正在越南中未来消费预测的应用

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摘要

The Quantile Mapping (QM) bias correction (BC) technique was applied for the first time to address biases in the simulated precipitation over Vietnam from the Regional Climate Model (RegCM) driven by five Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) Global Climate Model (GCM) products. The QM process was implemented for the period 1986-2005, and subsequently applied to the mid-future period 2046-2065 under both Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5. Comparison with the original model outputs during the independent validation period shows a large bias reduction from 45% to 3% over Vietnam and significant improvements in representing precipitation indices (PI) after applying the QM technique. Moreover, the ensemble average of the BC products generally performed better than an individual BC member in capturing the spatial distribution of the PIs. A drier condition with a longer rainfall break, and shorter consecutive rainfall events are anticipated over Northern and Central Vietnam during their respective wet seasons in the mid-future. Furthermore, this study showed that the QM method minimally modified the future changes in PIs over most of Vietnam; thus, these corrected projections could be used in climate impacts and adaptation studies.
机译：应用分量材料映射（QM）偏压校正（BC）技术首次从由五个耦合模型相互研究项目第5（CMIP5）全球气候模型驱动的区域气候模型（REGCM）在越南的模拟降水中解决偏差（GCM）产品。 QM过程在1986-2005期间实施，随后在代表性浓度途径（RCP）4.5和RCP 8.5中应用于未来未来期间2046-2065。与独立验证期间的原始模型输出的比较显示，在应用QM技术后，在越南的45％到3％的大幅度降低到3％，并在应用QM技术后代表降水指数（PI）。此外，BC产品的集合平均值通常比单独的BC成员在捕获PIS的空间分布时更好地执行。在中期未来的潮湿季节期间，越南北部和中央越南预期了较长的降雨休息时间和较短的降雨事件。此外，该研究表明，QM方法在大多数越南的大部分地区微微地修改了PIS的未来变化;因此，这些校正的突起可用于气候影响和适应性研究。

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