Uncertainty Surrounding Projections of the Long-Term Impact of Ivermectin Treatment on Human Onchocerciasis

Hugo C. Turner; Thomas S. Churcher; Martin Walker; Mike Y. Osei-Atweneboana; Roger K. Prichard; María-Gloria Basá?ez

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Uncertainty Surrounding Projections of the Long-Term Impact of Ivermectin Treatment on Human Onchocerciasis

机译：伊维菌素治疗对人onchocerciasis的长期影响的不确定性围绕预测

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Background Recent studies in Mali, Nigeria, and Senegal have indicated that annual (or biannual) ivermectin distribution may lead to local elimination of human onchocerciasis in certain African foci. Modelling-based projections have been used to estimate the required duration of ivermectin distribution to reach elimination. A crucial assumption has been that microfilarial production by Onchocerca volvulus is reduced irreversibly by 30–35% with each (annual) ivermectin round. However, other modelling-based analyses suggest that ivermectin may not have such a cumulative effect. Uncertainty in this (biological) and other (programmatic) assumptions would affect projected outcomes of long-term ivermectin treatment.

机译：背景技术Mali，尼日利亚和塞内加尔的最近研究表明，年龄（或两年期）伊维菌素分布可能导致某些非洲焦点中的局部消除人类的妇女。基于建模的投影已被用于估计伊维菌素分布所需的持续时间以达到消除。至关重要的假设是通过Onchocerca Volvulus的微生物生产因每次（每年）伊维菌素循环而不可逆转地减少30-35％。然而，其他基于建模的分析表明Ivermectin可能没有这种累积效应。这种（生物）和其他（Programmatic）假设的不确定性会影响长期伊维菌素治疗的预计结果。

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《PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases》 |2013年第4期|共10页
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Hugo C. Turner; Thomas S. Churcher; Martin Walker; Mike Y. Osei-Atweneboana; Roger K. Prichard; María-Gloria Basá?ez;
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1. Impact of long-term treatment of onchocerciasis with ivermectin in Kaduna State, Nigeria: first evidence of the potential for elimination in the operational area of the African Programme for Onchocerciasis Control [J] . Afework Hailemariam Tekle, Elizabeth Elhassan, Sunday Isiyaku, Parasites Vectors . 2012,第3期

机译：伊维菌素长期治疗盘尾丝虫病对尼日利亚卡杜纳州的影响：非洲盘尾丝虫病控制规划实施领域可能消除的第一个证据
2. Impact of long-term treatment of onchocerciasis with ivermectin in Kaduna State, Nigeria: first evidence of the potential for elimination in the operational area of the African Programme for Onchocerciasis Control [J] . Afework Hailemariam Tekle, Elizabeth Elhassan, Sunday Isiyaku, Parasites Vectors . 2012,第1期

机译：伊维菌素长期治疗盘尾丝虫病对尼日利亚卡杜纳州的影响：非洲盘尾丝虫病控制规划实施领域可能消除的第一个证据
3. Impact of ivermectin on onchocerciasis transmission: assessing the empirical evidence that repeated ivermectin mass treatments may lead to elimination/eradication in West-Africa [J] . Gerard JJM Borsboom, Boakye A Boatin, Nico JD Nagelkerke, Filaria journal . 2003,第2010期

机译：伊维菌素对盘尾丝虫病传播的影响：评估经验证据，反复进行伊维菌素的大规模治疗可能导致西非的消灭/根除
4. Impact of Long-Term Temperature Cycling on the Thermo-Hydro-Mechanical Behavior of Unsaturated Soils Surrounding an Energy Pile [C] . Charles J. R. Coccia, John S. McCartney Geo-Chicago . 2016

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5. Onchocerciasis, lymphatic filariasis, soil transmitted helminthiasis, and schistosomiasis: Integration and economic evaluation of mass drug administration using ivermectin, albendazole, and praziquantel. [D] . Evans, Darin S. 2013

机译：盘尾丝虫病，淋巴丝虫病，土壤传播的蠕虫病和血吸虫病：使用伊维菌素，阿苯达唑和吡喹酮进行大规模药物给药的整合和经济评价。
6. Uncertainty Surrounding Projections of the Long-Term Impact of Ivermectin Treatment on Human Onchocerciasis [O] . Hugo C. Turner, Thomas S. Churcher, Martin Walker, 2013

机译：伊维菌素治疗对人盘尾丝虫病的长期影响的不确定性周围预测
7. Uncertainty surrounding projections of the long-term impact of ivermectin treatment on human onchocerciasis. [O] . Hugo C Turner, Thomas S Churcher, Martin Walker, 2013

机译：关于伊维菌素治疗对人类盘尾丝虫病的长期影响的预测的不确定性。

Uncertainty Surrounding Projections of the Long-Term Impact of Ivermectin Treatment on Human Onchocerciasis

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