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首页> 外文期刊>Frontiers in Public Health >SARS-CoV-2 Infections in the World: An Estimation of the Infected Population and a Measure of How Higher Detection Rates Save Lives
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SARS-CoV-2 Infections in the World: An Estimation of the Infected Population and a Measure of How Higher Detection Rates Save Lives

机译：SARS-COV-2在世界上感染：估计受感染的人口和衡量检测利率如何挽救生命的措施

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This paper provides an estimation of the accumulated detection rates and the accumulated number of infected individuals by the novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Worldwide, on July 20, it has been estimated above 160 million individuals infected by SARS-CoV-2. Moreover, it is found that only about 1 out of 11 infected individuals are detected. In an information context in which population-based seroepidemiological studies are not frequently available, this study shows a parsimonious alternative to provide estimates of the number of SARS-CoV-2 infected individuals. By comparing our estimates with those provided by the population-based seroepidemiological ENE-COVID study in Spain, we confirm the utility of our approach. Then, using a cross-country regression, we investigated if differences in detection rates are associated with differences in the cumulative number of deaths. The hypothesis investigated in this study is that higher levels of detection of SARS-CoV-2 infections can reduce the risk exposure of the susceptible population with a relatively higher risk of death. Our results show that, on average, detecting 5 instead of 35 percent of the infections is associated with multiplying the number of deaths by a factor of about 6. Using this result, we estimated that 120 days after the pandemic outbreak, if the US would have tested with the same intensity as South Korea, about 85,000 out of their 126,000 reported deaths could have been avoided.
机译：本文通过新型严重急性呼吸综合征冠状病毒2（SARS-COV-2）估算了累积的检测率和受感染的个体的累积数量的估计。世界各地，7月20日，估计超过160万人被SARS-COV-2感染的人。此外，发现仅检测11个感染个体中的约1个。在一个信息背景下，该研究表明，替代替代方案，提供了估计SARS-COV-2感染的个体数量的替代方案。通过将我们的估计与西班牙人口的血清血管学埃伊河科学研究提供的估计进行比较，我们确认了我们的方法的效用。然后，使用越野回归，我们调查了检测率的差异与累积死亡人数的差异有关。本研究研究的假设是较高水平的SARS-COV-2感染程度可以降低易感人群的风险暴露，死亡风险相对较高。我们的结果表明，平均而言，检测5代替35％的感染与将死亡人数乘以约6倍的倍增。使用这一结果，我们估计大流行爆发后120天，如果美国会已经用与韩国相同的强度进行了测试，其中大约85,000名据报道的126,000人报告的死亡。

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