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The Macroeconomy and the Real Estate Market: Evidence from the Global Financial Crisis and the COVID-19 Pandemic Crisis

机译：宏观经济和房地产市场：来自全球金融危机的证据和Covid-19大流行危机

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This paper investigates the impact of the macroeconomy on Vietnam real estate market (REM). The research data were collected by the authors on a quarterly basis, from the third quarter of 2004 to the last counterpart of 2020. The authors utilize the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach. The results reveal that REM is negatively influenced by the macroeconomy (interest rate and global crisis) in the short run and long run. This result is completely consistent with the wealth effect theory, the Austrian Business Cycle Theory (ABC), as well as the Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT). However, the findings in this paper are valuable empirical evidence on the impact of the macroeconomy on REM in Vietnam, a developing country with relatively nascent REM. In particular, this study has achieved novelty compared to previous studies by finding the negative impact of the global crisis on REM, where the global crisis is defined to include the global financial crisis and the Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic crisis. Based on this, Vietnam needs to operate macroeconomic policies fle10.14742/ajet.ibly and in accordance with each period in order to develop REM in a stable and sustainable manner.
机译：本文调查了宏观经济对越南房地产市场（REM）的影响。从2004年第三季度到2002年第三季度，该研究数据由2004年第三季度到2020年的最后一个对手。作者利用自回归分布式滞后（ARDL）方法。结果表明，REM在短期和长期运行中受到宏观经济（利率和全球危机）的负面影响。这一结果与财富效应理论完全一致，奥地利商业周期理论（ABC）以及套利定价理论（APT）。然而，本文的研究结果是关于宏观经济对越南宏观经济的影响的有价值的经验证据，该发展中国家/地区具有相对初始的REM。特别是，本研究与以往的研究相比，通过寻找全球危机对REM的负面影响，全球危机被定义为包括全球金融危机和冠状病毒（Covid-19）大流行危机的危机的负面影响。基于此，越南需要运营宏观经济政策FLE10.14742 / AJET.IET，并按照每个期间运行，以便以稳定和可持续的方式制定REM。

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