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Disaster risk from a macroeconomic perspective: a metric for fiscal vulnerability evaluation

机译：从宏观经济角度看灾害风险：评估财政脆弱性的指标

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摘要

The Disaster Deficit Index (DDI) measures macroeconomic and financial risk in a country according to possible catastrophic scenario events. Extreme disasters can generate financial deficit due to sudden and elevated need of resources to restore affected inventories. The DDI captures the relationship between the economic loss that a country could experience when a catastrophic event occurs and the availability of funds to address the situation. The proposed model utilises the procedures of the insurance industry in establishing probable losses, based on critical impacts during a given period of exposure; for economic resilience, the model allows one to calculate the country's financial ability to cope with a critical impact. There are limitations and costs associated with access to resources that one must consider as feasible values according to the country's macroeconomic and financial conditions. This paper presents the DDI model and the results of its application to 19 countries of the Americas and aims to guide governmental decision-making in disaster risk reduction.
机译：灾害赤字指数（DDI）根据可能的灾难性情景事件衡量一个国家的宏观经济和金融风险。由于突发事件和突然增加对恢复受影响库存的资源需求，极端灾害可能会导致财政赤字。 DDI记录了国家在发生灾难性事件时可能遭受的经济损失与用于解决该情况的资金可用性之间的关系。提议的模型基于给定风险期间的关键影响，利用保险业的程序确定可能的损失；为了提高经济抵御能力，该模型允许人们计算该国应对重大影响的财务能力。与资源获取相关的限制和成本，根据该国的宏观经济和金融状况，必须被视为可行的价值。本文介绍了DDI模型及其在美洲19个国家/地区的应用结果，旨在指导政府决策减少灾害风险。

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