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首页> 外文期刊>Ecohydrology >When will the zebra mussel reach Florence? A model for the spread of Dreissena polymorpha in the Arno water system (Italy)
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When will the zebra mussel reach Florence? A model for the spread of Dreissena polymorpha in the Arno water system (Italy)

机译：斑马贻贝什么时候到达佛罗伦萨？ Dreissena polymorpha在阿尔诺水系统（意大利）中传播的模型

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摘要

The zebra mussel (Dreissena polymorpha) is a freshwater bivalve that has caused dramatic ecological and economic impacts worldwide in past decades. Its success as ecosystem invader is mainly due to the species ability of spreading along rivers, together with the extremely high population densities that can be reached by local populations. Here we propose a spatially explicit model aimed at describing the population dynamics of mussel colonies in rivers represented as oriented graphs. We specifically apply the model to the Bilancino-Sieve-Arno water system (Tuscany, Italy), where D. polymorpha has been recently sighted. The model accounts for local-scale demographic processes and along-stream transport mechanisms. Because of the different temporal scales involved, we couple continuous- and discrete-time dynamics. Our model produces spatiotemporal scenarios of invasion that present several distinctive features of the zebra mussel invasion patterns observed in nature, including the spatial patchiness and the temporal irregularity of local populations, and the so-called domino effect. The application of our model to the Arno case study shows that D. polymorpha could severely threaten the city of Florence within a few years. Control measures aimed at limiting the impact of the species can significantly alter the ecological and environmental parameters. We find that such variations may profoundly impact spatiotemporal invasion patterns, possibly with counter-intuitive effects. For instance, reduced larval input from Lake Bilancino can in some cases produce higher mussel densities in downstream colonies. Therefore, the control of D. polymorpha must be planned with care in order to prevent unwelcome outcomes.
机译：斑马贻贝（Dreissena polymorpha）是一种淡水双壳类动物，在过去的几十年中已经在全球范围内引起了巨大的生态和经济影响。它作为生态系统入侵者的成功主要归功于沿河传播的物种能力以及当地人口可以达到的极高人口密度。在这里，我们提出了一个空间显式模型，旨在描述以定向图表示的河流中贻贝群落的种群动态。我们将模型专门应用于Bilancino-Sieve-Arno水系统（意大利托斯卡纳），最近发现了多形藻。该模型说明了地方人口统计过程和沿河运输机制。由于涉及的时间尺度不同，因此我们将连续时间和离散时间动力学耦合在一起。我们的模型产生了入侵的时空场景，这些场景呈现出自然界中观察到的斑马贻贝入侵模式的几个独特特征，包括当地人群的空间斑块和时间不规则性，以及所谓的多米诺效应。我们的模型在Arno案例研究中的应用表明，D。polymorpha可能在几年内严重威胁佛罗伦萨市。旨在限制物种影响的控制措施可以大大改变生态和环境参数。我们发现，这样的变化可能对时空的入侵模式产生深远的影响，可能具有反直觉的影响。例如，比兰奇诺湖幼虫输入减少，在某些情况下可在下游殖民地产生更高的贻贝密度。因此，必须谨慎规划多形果蝇的控制，以防止不受欢迎的结果。

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  • 来源
    《Ecohydrology》 |2009年第4期|428-439|共12页
  • 作者

    Lorenzo Mari; Renato Casagrandi; Maria Teresa Pisani; Emiliano Pucci; Marino Gatto;

  • 作者单位

    Dipartimento di Elettronica e Informazione, Politecnico di Milano, Via Ponzio 34/5, 20133 Milano, Italy;

    Dipartimento di Elettronica e Informazione, Politecnico di Milano, Via Ponzio 34/5, 20133 Milano, Italy;

    Centro Interdipartimentale di Ricerca in Informatica Territoriale e Ambientale, Politecnico di Milano, Piazza Leonardo da Vinci 32, 20133 Milano,Italy;

    Centro Interdipartimentale di Ricerca in Informatica Territoriale e Ambientale, Politecnico di Milano, Piazza Leonardo da Vinci 32, 20133 Milano,Italy;

    Dipartimento di Elettronica e Informazione, Politecnico di Milano, Via Ponzio 34/5, 20133 Milano, Italy;

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  • 关键词

    invasive species; larval dispersal; spatially explicit model; hybrid model; nonlinear dynamics; partial differential equations;

    机译：入侵物种;幼虫扩散空间显式模型;混合模型非线性动力学;偏微分方程;

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