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Science, Policy, and Data-Driven Decisions in a Data Vacuum

机译：数据真空中的科学，政策和数据驱动决策

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摘要

Environmental regulation invariably requires making decisions in the face of scientific uncertainty. However, making decisions in the near-absence of evidence essentially, the most extreme uncertainty is a special case because it most plainly exposes the defaults and preferences of those making the decisions, and because it may inspire creative ways of reducing the probability of error. Here, we relate the case of an Endangered Species Act listing of several rockfish species in Puget Sound, Washington, which illustrates a set of decisions the National Marine Fisheries Service made in the absence of critical information about those populations. Subsequent scientific effort and technological advances have been powerful tests of the listing decision, and have suggested different outcomes for each of the three species under evaluation. We discuss this case in the context of agency discretion and internal incentives to make or defer decisions. We then highlight the roles of technological change and institutional learning as they intersect with these incentives, and suggest structural means of enabling this kind of effective data use by administrative agencies more generally.
机译：环境法规始终需要面对科学不确定性做出决策。但是，从本质上来说，在几乎没有证据的情况下做出决策，最极端的不确定性是一个特例，因为它最清楚地暴露了做出决策者的违约和偏爱，并且因为这可能激发出减少错误发生可能性的创新方法。在这里，我们以华盛顿州普吉特海湾的几种石鱼物种的《濒危物种法》为例，该案例说明了国家海洋渔业局在缺乏有关这些种群的关键信息的情况下做出的一系列决定。随后的科学努力和技术进步已成为对上市决策的有力考验，并为评估中的三个物种提出了不同的结果。我们在机构酌处权和制定或推迟决策的内部激励措施的背景下讨论此案。然后，我们强调了技术变革和机构学习与这些激励措施相交时的作用，并提出了使行政机构更广泛地使用这种有效数据的结构性方法。

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  • 来源
    《Ecology law quarterly》 |2017年第1期|7-40|共34页
  • 作者

    Kelly Ryan P.; Levin Phillip S.; Lee Kai N.;

  • 作者单位

    Univ Washington, Sch Marine & Environm Affairs, Seattle, WA 98195 USA;

    Univ Washington, Sch Environm & Forest Sci, Seattle, WA 98195 USA;

    Williams Coll, Environm Studies, Williamstown, MA 01267 USA|Williams Coll, Williamstown, MA 01267 USA|David & Lucile Packard Foundation, Los Altos, CA USA;

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