"NOBODY predicted the date of the Russian revolution," notes Elliott Abrams, Donald Trump's special representative for Venezuela. "We have no ability to predict when regimes collapse. But we're heightening the contradictions." When Donald Trump's administration recognised Juan Guaido (pictured), the speaker of Venezuela's national assembly, as the country's interim president and imposed sanctions against the oil industry in January, some believed that the armed forces would quickly abandon Nicolas Madura. But although living conditions are deteriorating, the regime shows no sign of imploding. Indeed, it is cautiously taking the offensive. It has arrested Roberto Mar-rero, Mr Guaido's chief-of-staff, has stripped Mr Guaido of his political rights and may be poised to arrest him too.
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