America's fiscal Cassandra

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America's fiscal Cassandra

机译：美国财政卡桑德拉

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This book carries two warning signs. First, it has a plodding title: "The Education of an American Dreamer". Second, it is the memoir of a former commerce secretary. How could such a book possibly fail to be dull?rnThe answer is, if it is written by Peter Peterson. Most commerce secretaries cannot be forgotten because the public never learned their names in the first place. Mr Peterson is an anomaly. As the head of Richard Nixon's commerce department, he specialised in solid analysis and brazen showmanship. When trying to end a furious stand-off between tuna fishermen and dolphin-lovers, he posed with Flipper, a Bottlenose film star, to reassure the public that he cared. (He also pushed for safer tuna nets.) To promote a new way of making children's clothes flame-resistant, he got his daughter to go on television and hold a match to her favourite rag doll.

机译：这本书带有两个警告标志。首先，它具有一个引人入胜的标题：“美国梦者的教育”。其次，这是前商务部长的回忆录。答案是，如果是彼得·彼得森（Peter Peterson）所写，那怎么可能没话说呢？不能忘记大多数商业秘书，因为公众从来没有首先学会他们的名字。彼得森先生很反常。作为理查德·尼克松（Richard Nixon）商业部门的负责人，他专门研究实体分析和无耻的演艺。当试图结束金枪鱼渔民和海豚爱好者之间的激烈对峙时，他与宽吻电影明星弗莱珀合影，向公众保证他在乎。（他还推动了更安全的金枪鱼网。）为了推广一种使童装具有耐火性的新方法，他让女儿上电视，并与她最喜欢的抹布娃娃进行了比赛。

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《The economist》 |2009年第8634期|86-86|共1页
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机译：政府支出对经济危机持续时间和强度的影响：拉丁美洲1900-2000摘要：我们利用来自20个拉丁美洲国家的一个世纪的数据，研究了经济危机事件中财政支出的作用。我们使用产出下降作为表明经济危机中断的方式，我们能够记录大量产出下降和大量经济危机的情况，这些特征在各国之间差异很大。我们通过计数数据和危险模型研究危机的持续时间，同时我们通过增长回归来研究危机的强度。我们的主要研究结果表明，财政支出在缩短经济危机方面的能力较弱，但它可能成为在危机期间平稳减产的有效工具。

America's fiscal Cassandra

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