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To burst or not to burst?

机译：破裂还是不破裂？

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Every August central bankers and econ-omists gather in the Rocky Mountain resort of Jackson Hole, Wyoming, for the annual symposium of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. This year Alan Greenspan, chairman of the Federal Reserve Board, used the opportunity to give his fullest defence yet against charges that he should have raised interest rates in the late 1990s enough to prick the stockmark-et bubble before it got too big. The Fed, like other central banks, takes account of rising asset prices (shares or property) to the extent that they boost spending and hence future inflation. Yet a financial bubble can inflate even when inflation in goods and services remains low. And when a bubble bursts, it may cause severe balance-sheet strains―of the kind now showing in America. Mr Greenspan offers two defences for failing to respond to the bubble. First, he argues that it was impossible to be certain that the rise in share prices in the late 1990s really was a bubble until after it had burst. Second, even if a central bank can detect a bubble, it is not clear what it can do. A small rise in interest rates might not work; by increasing confidence in the central bank's powers, it might even boost share prices further. On the other hand, a sharp increase in rates could trigger a recession-the very outcome central bankers would be seeking to avoid, says Mr Greenspan.
机译：每年八月，中央银行家和经济学家们聚集在怀俄明州落基山度假胜地杰克逊霍尔，参加堪萨斯城联邦储备银行的年度研讨会。今年，美联储主席艾伦•格林斯潘（Alan Greenspan）借此机会对自己的指控进行了最充分的辩护，这些指控是他本应在1990年代末提高利率，以在股市过大之前刺破股市。与其他中央银行一样，美联储也考虑到资产价格（股票或房地产）上涨的程度，以增加支出，从而增加未来的通货膨胀。即使商品和服务的通货膨胀率仍然很低，金融泡沫也可能会膨胀。而且，当泡沫破裂时，它可能会导致严重的资产负债表紧张，这在美国现在已经表现出来。格林斯潘先生针对未能对泡沫做出回应提供了两种辩护。首先，他认为无法确定1990年代末期的股价上涨确实是泡沫，直到泡沫破裂之后。第二，即使中央银行可以检测到泡沫，也不清楚它能做什么。利率小幅上涨可能行不通；通过增强对央行权力的信心，它甚至可能进一步提振股价。另一方面，利率大幅上升可能引发衰退-格林斯潘表示，央行将试图避免这种结果。

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