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Convergence patterns in financial development: evidence from club convergence

机译：金融发展中的趋同模式：俱乐部趋同的证据

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摘要

This article analyzes the degree of convergence of financial development for a panel of 50 countries. We apply the methodology of Phillips and Sul (Econome-trica 75:1771-1855, 2007) to various indicators of financial development to assess the existence of convergence clubs. We consider ten alternative indicators of financial development that various researchers use to proxy for the degree of financial development in countries. Overall, the results do not support the hypothesis that all countries converge to a single equilibrium state in financial development. Nevertheless, strong evidence exists of club convergence. Countries demonstrate a high degree of convergence in the sense that in the majority of financial indexes they form only two or three convergence clubs, depending on the measure of financial development used. We also apply the Phillips and Sul method to two real variables, per capita output and fixed capital investment to GDP, and find strong evidence of five and four distinct convergence clubs, respectively. Finally, we compare the various convergence clubs associated with financial development indicators to those clubs for per capita output and fixed capital investment to GDP. We conclude that strong evidence supports the correspondence between the convergence clubs for financial development and those two real variables.
机译：本文分析了一个由50个国家组成的小组的金融发展趋同程度。我们将Phillips和Sul（Econome-trica 75：1771-1855，2007）的方法应用于金融发展的各种指标，以评估融合俱乐部的存在。我们考虑了金融发展的十个替代指标，各种研究人员使用这些指标来替代各国的金融发展程度。总体而言，结果并不支持所有国家在金融发展中都收敛到单一均衡状态的假设。然而，有强有力的证据表明俱乐部趋同。各国在某种程度上表现出高度的趋同性，这取决于在大多数金融指标中它们仅形成两个或三个趋同性俱乐部，这取决于所使用的金融发展程度。我们还对两个实际变量（人均产出和固定资本投资占GDP）应用了Phillips和Sul方法，并分别找到了五个和四个不同的趋同俱乐部的有力证据。最后，我们将与金融发展指标相关的各种趋同性俱乐部与人均产出和固定资本投资对国内生产总值的俱乐部进行比较。我们得出结论，有力的证据支持金融发展趋同俱乐部与这两个真实变量之间的对应关系。

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