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On the impact of stochastic modeling of occupant behavior on the energy use of office buildings

机译：论随机占用行为对办公楼能源使用的影响

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The reliability of building performance simulation is hindered by several uncertainties, with aleatory uncertainty due to occupant behavior being one of the most critical. The present study aims to assess the propagation of uncertainty due to the adoption of stochastic models for modeling Occupant Presence and Actions (OPAs) available in the literature on the annual electric energy use of a reference office building. To this purpose, a global sensitivity analysis was designed and carried out by analyzing model inputs and energy outputs of 144 permutations of 15 different stochastic models for OPAs for a total of 7200 simulations. Building energy use computed considering stochastic OPAs modeling resulted in being sensibly higher than the reference value estimated assuming scheduled occupancy and rule-based occupant's actions as suggested by reference standards. The median value of the electric energy use was 58.6% higher than the base case electric energy use. Furthermore, the stochastic models used to model window operation have the highest effect on energy output, followed by light switch-off, and occupancy models. Light switch-on models showed a lower influence on the overall building energy per-formance. Furthermore, the Generalized Estimating Equations method was adopted to assess the interde-pendence among stochastic models for OPA and showed that changing the stochastic model in window operation, occupancy estimation, and light switch-off behavior generates a considerable difference in building's energy performance. Contrariwise, the available stochastic models for light switch-on and blind operation perform quite similarly among each other and have a limited impact on a building's energy performance. (C) 2021 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
机译：建筑物性能模拟的可靠性受到若干不确定性的阻碍，由于占用行为是最关键的杀菌性不确定性。本研究旨在评估不确定的传播，因为采用了用于在文献中提供的乘员使用的乘员存在和行动（OPAS）在参考办公楼的年电能使用中提供的乘员存在和行动（OPA）。为此目的，通过分析为OPAS的15个不同随机模型的144个排列的模型输入和能量输出来设计和进行全局敏感性分析，总共7200次模拟。考虑随机OPAS建模的建筑能源使用导致显着高于参考值估计的参考价值，假设根据参考标准建议的预定占用和基于规则的占用行为。电能使用的中位数比基本壳电能使用高58.6％。此外，用于模拟窗口操作的随机模型对能量输出的效果最高，然后是灯开关和占用模型。轻型开启模型对整体建筑能量的影响较低。此外，采用广义估计方程方法评估OPA随机模型中的Interde窗格，并显示改变窗口操作，占用估计和灯切断行为中的随机模型产生了相当大的建筑能量性能差异。相比之下，用于轻型开启和盲手术的可用随机模型相互行动，对建筑能量性能产生有限的影响。 （c）2021 elestvier b.v.保留所有权利。

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