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Energy subsidy reform for growth and equity in Egypt: The approach matters

机译：埃及能源补贴改革促进增长和公平：方法很重要

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摘要

Phasing out energy subsidies is high on the agenda of policymakers in several Middle Eastern and North African countries. The impact of such reform can vary widely depending on the country and policy. This paper contributes to the existing literature by examining the phasing out of energy subsidies in Egypt under alternative economic scenarios. In particular, we consider Egypt's short- and long-term economic adjustment under different assumptions on labor market flexibility, spending options of subsidy savings, and alternative social protection measures. Results from economy-wide model simulations suggest that energy subsidy cuts may hamper economic growth in the short term, but depending on the policy measure, will improve growth perspectives and household welfare in the longer term. Yet, findings also point to likely adverse impacts of the reform on household consumption in the short and longer run. To counteract such negative impacts, targeted social protection measures should be continued and scaled up in parallel with the phasing out of energy subsidies.
机译：在一些中东和北非国家，逐步取消能源补贴是政策制定者的首要任务。这种改革的影响可能会因国家和政策而异。本文通过研究替代经济情景下埃及逐步取消能源补贴的方式为现有文献做出了贡献。特别是，我们在不同的劳动力市场假设，补贴储蓄的支出选择以及其他社会保护措施的假设下，考虑了埃及的短期和长期经济调整。整个经济模型模拟的结果表明，削减能源补贴可能会在短期内阻碍经济增长，但根据政策措施，从长远来看将改善增长前景和家庭福利。然而，研究结果还指出，从短期和长期来看，该改革可能对家庭消费产生不利影响。为了抵消这种负面影响，应继续采取有针对性的社会保护措施，并在逐步取消能源补贴的同时扩大规模。

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