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Turkey's Strategic Energy Efficiency Plan - An ex ante impact assessment of the residential sector

机译：土耳其的战略能源效率计划-住宅部门的事前影响评估

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摘要

Turkey's energy demand has been growing by 4.5% per year over the last decade. As a reaction to this, the Turkish government has implemented the Strategic Energy Efficiency Plan (SEEP), which provides a guideline for energy efficiency policies in all sectors. The aim of this study is to analyse the potential of the SEEP on final energy demand in the Turkish residential sector until 2030. Three scenarios are developed based on a detailed bottom-up modelling approach using a vintage stock model to simulate the energy demand of heating systems and appliances. The results show a decreasing final energy demand in the reference scenario from about 944 PJ in 2008 to 843 PJ in 2030. This reflects a structural break, which is mainly caused by a high building demolition rate and low efficiency in the existing building stock. The SEEP achieves additional savings of around 111 PJ until 2030, while a scenario with even higher efficiency shows further savings of 91 PJ. Electricity demand increases in all scenarios - mainly due to growing ownership rates of appliances. The SEEP will achieve around 10 TWh of electricity savings in 2030 compared to the reference scenario, mainly through more ambitious end-use standards.
机译：在过去十年中，土耳其的能源需求每年以4.5％的速度增长。为此，土耳其政府实施了战略能源效率计划（SEEP），该计划为所有部门的能源效率政策提供了指南。这项研究的目的是分析SEEP在2030年之前对土耳其住宅部门最终能源需求的潜力。基于详细的自下而上的建模方法，使用老式库存模型来模拟供暖的能源需求，开发了三种方案。系统和设备。结果表明，参考情景中的最终能源需求从2008年的约944 PJ减少到2030年的843 PJ。这反映出结构性断裂，这主要是由于现有建筑物的高拆除率和低效率造成的。到2030年，SEEP可以额外节省约111 PJ，而效率更高的情况表明，可以进一步节省91 PJ。在所有情况下，电力需求都将增加-主要是由于家用电器的拥有率不断提高。与参考情景相比，SEEP到2030年将实现约10 TWh的节电，主要是通过更雄心勃勃的最终使用标准。

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  • 来源
    《Energy Policy》 |2014年第7期|14-29|共16页
  • 作者

    Rainer Elsland; Can Divrak; Tobias Fleiter; Martin Wietschel;

  • 作者单位

    Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research ISI, Breslauer Strasse 48, 76139 Karlsruhe, Germany;

    Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research ISI, Breslauer Strasse 48, 76139 Karlsruhe, Germany;

    Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research ISI, Breslauer Strasse 48, 76139 Karlsruhe, Germany;

    Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research ISI, Breslauer Strasse 48, 76139 Karlsruhe, Germany;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《工程索引》(EI);
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    Bottom-up analysis; Impact assessment of policies; Residential sector Turkey;

    机译：自下而上的分析;政策影响评估;住宅部门土耳其;

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